6 ways the Russia-Ukraine war could play out in the wake of Ukraine’s counteroffensive

• Over a year since Russia invaded Ukraine, there still does not appear to be a clear end in sight.

• A defense expert said that the direction of the war likely depended on Ukraine’s counteroffensive.
• Here are six ways the war could play out and what victory might look like for either side.

Russia’s war in Ukraine has been raging on for over a year, and there is still no clear end to the conflict in sight.

Thousands of soldiers have died, entire cities have been reduced to piles of rubble, there have been allegations of atrocities by Russian occupiers, and millions have become refugees as Russia has occupied swaths of territory in the south and east of the country.

But Ukraine has put up a stronger fight than anyone expected — and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said in June that his forces had begun their long-anticipated counteroffensive.

While it’s too early to know whether the counteroffensive will succeed, the direction of the conflict will largely depend on it, Seth Jones, the director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ International Security Program, told Insider.

With the largest land war in Europe since 1945 now entering a new phase, here are six ways it could play out.

Cease-fire

The next stage of the conflict will be determined by how quickly or slowly Ukraine is able to retake territory in its counteroffensive, Jones said.

If Ukraine stalls, it could raise the prospect of discussions with Russia, he said, which would likely be encouraged by some Western countries.

However, if Ukraine were able to reduce the amount of Russian-held territory from the current 20% to around 10-15%, it would be less likely to negotiate, he added.

Negotiations could lead to a temporary cease-fire, which could end up with a similar situation to the North and South Korean border, where neither side recognizes that the war is over.

“That would probably not be an end, though, that would be the state of active warfare declining, at least temporarily, and it becomes something closer to a frozen conflict that can heat up or cool down depending on the range of factors,” he said.

In this scenario, Russia might hope that the US and other Western countries lose interest in the conflict and in supporting Ukraine.

“That would eventually change the balance of power in Russia’s favor and allow it to reconquer territory the way it ideally wanted to in February,” Jones said.

A peace deal 

It is possible that the war could end with a peace deal, but Jones said he thought Putin was “in too deep at the moment.”

“He’s committed far too much political and military capital right now to extract himself from the war without very clear successes,” Jones said.

Jones said that while it was not clear what Putin would accept as a “success,” he might settle for Russia keeping parts of Ukrainian territory it has captured in the east and south, which he could then frame as his intended goal.

The more complicated question is what Ukraine would be willing to give up in a deal. Zelenskyy has said Ukraine’s goal is to take back all Russian-occupied parts of the country, including Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014.

“I think that (a peace deal) is highly unlikely in this climate, and I think it would probably be suicidal for either Putin or Zelenskyy to make any kind of concession,” Jones said.

Russian victory

Russia’s goal was to fully take control of Ukraine, and Jones said it was important to note that Ukraine had already achieved a significant victory in preventing that from happening.

“Arguably, at least up to February 2022, the third most powerful military army in the world behind the US and the Chinese was the Russians. So they’ve already prevented a Russian blitzkrieg operation to take the capital, overthrow the government, and either integrate it into Russia or establish a puppet government,” he said.

While Russia’s goal looks increasingly unlikely, it may accept a “victory” in the form of a peace deal that offered more territory than it had before the invasion began.

As things currently stand, Russian forces have very little prospect for offensive operations because their casualties in the battle for Bakhmut have been so significant, Jones said.

Their goal now will be to solidify territorial gains, prevent Ukrainian forces from liberating additional territory, and then play a waiting game, according to Jones.

Russian retreat, Ukrainian victory

It is possible that Ukraine will be able to make gains in places like Luhansk and Donetsk in the east and Zaporizhzhia in the south as part of its counteroffensive.

“It’s not out of the question that Ukraine is going to be able to make major advances, but pushing the Russians out of all territory, that’s going to be hard,” Jones said.

And as long as Putin is in charge, it seems very unlikely that Russian forces would retreat entirely.

“In Russia, bad things happen to rulers who lose wars,” Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine colonel and CSIS senior advisor, previously told Insider.

But despite Russia’s leader having faced discontent at home due to rising war casualties, the disastrous fate of many conscripts, and an economy damaged by sanctions, he appears to show no signs of backing down.

Though the chances of him being overthrown in a coup are perhaps higher than ever, experts have previously told Insider that the Russian leader has made his regime “coup-proof.” 

Even if Russia were to suffer major losses in Ukraine, Russian Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu and army chief Valery Gerasimov would likely be the ones to take the blame, not Putin.

However, a total Russian retreat could be possible if Putin were to be ousted or die. Rumors have also long swirled about his alleged health problems, though US intel and military experts have warned that there is no credible evidence that he is ill. 

Long-term war

One likely possibility is that fighting continues to rage on for months or even years without leaving a clear winner.

The conflict could essentially become a war of attrition, in which both sides try to wear each other down to the point of collapse.

It is unclear which side would be able to hold out for longer. While Ukraine has significant assistance from the West, Russia has more raw manpower and can “churn through a lot of bodies,” Jones said. 

However, it is important to note that Russia’s military has been significantly weakened by this conflict, having experienced big losses in terms of soldiers and weapons.

Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in May that he thought decades of war was likely, as Russia would struggle to achieve its objectives militarily.

However, Russia’s manpower means it’s unlikely Ukraine will be able to reclaim all of its territory, he added.

“That means fighting is going to continue, it’s going to be bloody, it’s going to be hard. And at some point, both sides will either negotiate a settlement or they’ll come to a military conclusion,” he said.

Nuclear war and/or NATO intervention 

Putin has repeatedly made nuclear threats since he began the invasion of Ukraine and has claimed it was “not a bluff.” 

Western countries and experts are divided on how seriously to take the threats.

Jones said that there are big risks involved in using nuclear weapons, including nuclear fallout in Russia’s own territory.

If Russian forces face a full-scale military rout, Putin could use a battlefield nuclear weapon, but Jones said the risks of would likely outweigh any benefits.

“There are a lot of risks involved in making that nuclear taboo, politically, diplomatically. What would that spell for Vladimir Putin’s regime? I think the US has already communicated pretty forcefully that all bets are off if Russia were to use nuclear weapons,” he said.

It is unclear whether NATO would get involved in that scenario, Jones added. One senior official previously said that a Russian nuclear strike could trigger a “physical response” from NATO.

However, Jones said that NATO declaring war on Russia could create a major war that could pull in other countries like China, which is an outcome that the organization likely wants to avoid. 

Instead, NATO would likely first look to increase sanctions and support Ukraine with weapons.