NEW DELHI: Indian refiners are poised to sharply curtail imports of Russian oil to comply with new U.S. sanctions on two top Russian producers, industry sources said on Thursday, potentially removing a major hurdle to a trade deal with the United States.
The change comes as India faces punishing 50% tariffs on its exports to the U.S. – with half of those duties in retaliation for Russian oil purchases – and negotiates a potential trade deal that could bring those tariffs in line with Asian peers in exchange for winding down crude imports from Moscow.
India has emerged as the biggest buyer of discounted seaborne Russian crude in the aftermath of Moscow’s 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine, importing about 1.7 million barrels per day in the first nine months of this year.
The U.S. sanctions target Lukoil and Rosneft Russia’s two biggest oil producers.
Privately-owned Reliance Industries the top Indian buyer of Russian crude, plans to reduce or cease imports of Russian oil, including halting purchases under its large long-term deal with Rosneft, people familiar with the matter said.
“Recalibration of Russian oil imports is ongoing and Reliance will be fully aligned to GOI (Government of India) guidelines,” a Reliance spokesman said in response to a query on whether the company plans to cut its crude imports from Russia.
Indian refiners review Russian oil contracts after US sanctions, source says
Indian state refiners including Indian Oil Corp, Bharat Petroleum Corp and Hindustan Petroleum Corp are also reviewing their Russian oil trade documents to ensure no supply will be coming directly from Rosneft and Lukoil after the U.S. sanctioned the oil companies, a source with direct knowledge of the matter said on Thursday.
India’s oil ministry and the state refiners did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
“There will be a massive cut. We don’t anticipate it will go to zero immediately as there will be some barrels coming into the market” via intermediaries, a refinery source said, declining to be named as they were not authorised to speak with media.
Rosneft and Lukoil together supplied about 60% of the Russian oil purchased by India, said Prashant Vashisth, vice president at Moody’s affiliate ICRA Ltd.
“While India can substitute the purchases from Russia with suppliers from the Middle East and other regions, the import bill for crude oil would increase. On an annual basis, the replacement by market priced crude would lead to an increase in the import bill by less than 2%,” he said.
‘IT ALL DEPENDS ON BANKS’
Wednesday’s sanctions, the first of President Donald Trump’s second term targeting Russia over its actions in Ukraine, come as his frustration grows with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“If the Trump administration does indeed back today’s words by action, we anticipate that refiners seeking to retain access to U.S. capital markets will forego Russian barrels,” RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft wrote in a note.
The U.S. Treasury has given companies until November 21 to wind down their transactions with the Russian oil producers, according to a release on the sanctions on Wednesday.
“It all depends on banks,” another Indian refinery official said. “If banks clear payments then we will buy. Otherwise my intake will be zero.”
BIG BUYER
Reliance, which is controlled by billionaire Mukesh Ambani and operates the world’s biggest refining complex at Jamnagar in western Gujarat state, has a long-term deal to buy nearly 500,000 bpd of crude oil from Russian oil major Rosneft. The refiner also buys Russian oil from intermediaries.
In recent days, Reliance has purchased spot crude cargoes from the Middle East and Brazil, which could be used to partly replace Russian supplies, traders said. It was seen in the market on Thursday scouting for supplies, said a Middle Eastern trader approached by Reliance.
One of the sources said that before the U.S. move, Reliance was considering stopping Russian oil imports for the one of its two refineries that is export-focused due to a ban by the European Union on refined products produced from Russian oil that takes effect in January.
Indian refiner Nayara Energy, whose biggest shareholder is Rosneft, also buys oil from the Russian state company. Nayara did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Indian state refiners rarely buy Russian oil directly from Rosneft and Lukoil as their purchases are typically made through intermediaries, trade sources said.
Brent crude futures extended gains, rising by 4.92% at 1452 GMT on Thursday.
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