SINGAPORE: Global stocks began an event-filled week on the front foot on Monday, as investors took heart from growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December even as policymakers remain divided over such a move.
Markets were gearing up for potential catalysts, including the release of U.S. retail sales and producer prices data due later in the week, while British finance minister Rachel Reeves is also set to unveil her highly anticipated budget.
Geopolitical developments were also front and centre of trading rooms, after the United States and Ukraine said they had created an “updated and refined peace framework” to end the war with Russia, keeping pressure on oil prices on hopes of a potential supply boost.
After a rough ride for global equity markets last week driven in part by worries over lofty tech valuations, Monday’s session in Asia gave stocks some much-needed reprieve.
Trading was thinned with Japan markets closed for a holiday, but MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.4% and South Korea’s tech-heavy Kospi index was up 0.7%.
Nasdaq futures and S&P 500 futures rose 0.64% and 0.45%, respectively, while EUROSTOXX 50 futures advanced 0.78%.
The latest boost came after remarks from influential Fed policymaker John Williams, who said on Friday that interest rates can fall “in the near term”, boosting the likelihood of further easing in December.
“We expect another Fed cut in December, followed by two more moves in March and June 2026 that take the funds rate to 3-3.25%,” said Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius in a note.
“The risks for next year are tilted toward more cuts, as the news on underlying inflation has been favourable and the deterioration in the job market – especially for college-educated workers – might be difficult to contain via the modest cyclical growth acceleration we expect.”
Fed funds futures now point to a 57% chance that the Fed will cut by 25 basis points next month, up from less than a 30% chance a week ago.
Trading of cash U.S. Treasuries was closed in Asia on Monday owing to the Japanese holiday, but futures held steady.
A record U.S. government shutdown that ended earlier this month has muddied the outlook for U.S. rates, as policymakers grapple with gaps in data that would normally guide their view of the world’s largest economy.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday it had cancelled the release of October’s consumer price report because the shutdown had prevented the collection of data.
On alert for yen intervention
The main focus in the currency market was on the yen , which fell 0.2% to 156.72 per dollar and remained pinned near a 10-month trough.
Traders have been alert to the risk of intervention from Japanese authorities to prop up the sliding yen, which has come under pressure from growing worries about the nation’s fiscal health and low domestic rates.
Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama ramped up her jawboning last week, which seems to have put a floor under the currency for now, though investors see an increasing risk of an intervention.
“Dollar/yen will definitely be going upwards even if you try to intervene. So I think they will have to live with this. The only way for them to do it is intervention to stop the pace maybe, but I don’t think they can stop the direction,” said Saktiandi Supaat, regional head of FX research and strategy for global markets at Maybank.
“It’ll be costly… you’re going to fight against a tide. The dollar seems to be very supported now.”
Japan can actively intervene in the currency market to mitigate the negative economic impact of a weak yen, Takuji Aida, a private-sector member of a key government panel, said in a television programme on public broadcaster NHK on Sunday.
Elsewhere, the dollar was firm despite the greater Fed easing bets, leaving the euro languishing near a two-week low at $1.1506. Sterling eased 0.06% to $1.3091 ahead of Wednesday’s budget announcement.
In commodities, Brent crude futures eased 0.16% to $62.46 a barrel, while U.S. crude fell 0.17% to $57.96 per barrel.
Spot gold was down 0.3% to $4,054.19 an ounce.
American Dollar Exchange Rate