SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars held firm on Monday as their US counterpart slipped amid confusion over new tariff announcements from President Donald Trump after the Supreme Court struck down many of his levies.
The Aussie was flat at $0.7080, after gaining 0.5% on Friday to help notch a sixth straight week of gains. The recent three-year top of $0.71465 remains the main target for bulls, while bears need to crack $0.6897.
The kiwi dollar gained 0.2% to $0.5990, having dropped 1% last week to as low as $0.5940 after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand hosed down rate hike expectations by pledging easy monetary policy will stay for some time.
Confusion loomed large after the US Supreme Court struck down a large swathe of Trump’s tariffs on Friday, leading him to announce a new 10% rate on the rest of the world, only to then lift it to 15% over the weekend.
It was not yet clear when these tariffs would be imposed, what might be excluded and whether every country would be slapped with 15%.
The US had previously imposed a 10% tariff on Australian goods, while those from New Zealand were levied at 15%.
With so much under question, Asian stocks mostly followed Wall Street higher but the US dollar came under pressure broadly. Joseph Capurso, head of international economics at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia, said the Supreme Court decision was widely expected and showed the president was subject to constraints.
“We do not expect the market tumult of April 2025 to be repeated… Nevertheless, the eventual application of a 15% tariff rate – we assume with similar exemptions for food, tech and USMCA among others – will impact economies differently.”
Data from New Zealand on Monday showed retail sales volumes grew 0.9% in the December quarter, slowing from the quarter before but still adding to economic growth.
In Australia, all eyes are on consumer price data for January due on Wednesday, after upbeat jobs data last week lifted bets on another rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia in May to 70%.
Forecasts are centred on a 0.3% rise in the monthly trimmed mean measure of inflation, which is enough to see the annual rate holding steady at 3.3%, outside of the RBA’s target band of 2% to 3%.
RBA Governor Michele Bullock will be asked about the latest inflation data at an event in Melbourne on Wednesday at 7:40 p.m. local time (0840 GMT) and any hawkish hints that add to market pricing of a May rate hike will help the Aussie rally further.
American Dollar Exchange Rate