US crude oil futures climbed more than 10% on Friday, pulling closer to Brent as buyers sought available barrels, with Middle Eastern supply constrained by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the expanding US-Israeli conflict with Iran.
Brent crude futures were up $5.42, or 6.35%, at $90.83 a barrel at 10:37am. CST (1637 GMT). West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) was up $7.81, or 9.81%, at $88.96.
It was the second straight day that gains in US crude futures had outpaced those in the Brent contract.
“Refiners and trading houses are searching for alternative barrels, and the US is the largest producer,” said Giovanni Staunovo an analyst with UBS. “To prevent inventories in the US being reduced too quickly via too high exports, the spread is moving back to the transportation costs.”
Also read: Trump says there will be no deal with Iran except ‘unconditional surrender’
Crude oil was set on Friday for its strongest weekly gain since the extreme volatility of the COVID‑19 pandemic in spring 2020, as conflict in the Middle East kept shipping and energy exports through the vital Strait of Hormuz halted.
Crude over $100 a barrel?
Qatar’s energy minister told the Financial Times he expects all Gulf energy producers to shut down exports within weeks, a move he said could drive oil to $150 a barrel, according to an interview published on Friday.
“The worst case scenario is developing before our eyes,” John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital said. “I think the forecasts of $100 a barrel all are to come to true.”
Oil started its steep rally after the US and Israel launched strikes on Iran last Saturday, prompting Tehran to stop tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil supply equal to about 20% of world demand usually passes through this waterway each day. With the Strait now effectively closed for seven days, that means about 140 million barrels of oil – equal to about 1.4 days of global demand – has been unable to reach the market.
The conflict has spread across the Middle East’s key energy-producing areas, disrupting output and forcing shutdowns of refineries and liquefied natural gas plants.
“Every day the Strait stays closed, prices will go higher,” said Staunovo. “The belief in the market was that Trump might pull back at some point because he doesn’t want to have high oil prices, but the longer that takes, the clearer it is how much is at risk.”
US President Donald Trump told Reuters in an exclusive interview on Thursday that he was not concerned about rising US gasoline prices linked to the conflict, saying “if they rise, they rise” and that the US military operation was his priority.
Also read: Trump on rising gas prices during Iran operation: ‘If they rise, they rise’
A White House official said the US Treasury Department is expected to announce measures to combat rising energy prices from the conflict, a prospect that briefly pushed prices down by more than 1% earlier on Friday.
Losses narrowed after Bloomberg News reported that the Trump administration had ruled out using the Treasury Department to trade oil futures for now.
The Treasury on Thursday granted waivers for companies to buy sanctioned Russian oil stored on tankers to ease supply constraints that have forced refineries in Asia to cut fuel processing.
The first waivers went to Indian refiners, who have since bought millions of barrels of Russian crude, reversing months of pressure on them to halt the purchases.
Ship-tracking firm Kpler estimates about 30 million barrels of Russian oil are available and loaded on vessels in the Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea region and Singapore Strait, including volumes in floating storage.
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