LONDON: Global demand for liquefied natural gas is estimated to rise by 54-68% by 2040 and 45-85% by 2050 from 422 million metric tons in 2025, boosted by growing Asian appetite for the fuel, Shell, the world’s biggest LNG trader, said on Monday.
A year ago, Shell said global demand for LNG was expected to rise to between 630 million and 718 million metric tons a year by 2040.
On Monday, it narrowed the 2040 range to 650 mtpa and 710 mtpa and extended its forecast to 2050 at an expected range for LNG demand of 610 mtpa and 780 mtpa. The company plans to grow its LNG sales by 4-5% a year.
The company added that Monday’s numbers were not final given the developing Iran war, which has upended oil and LNG trade.
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At Shell’s 2025 annual general meeting climate activist investor ACCR, acting as part of a group of shareholders with combined assets of $86 billion, won around 21% support for a resolution questioning Shell’s LNG demand outlook.
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The shareholders, which included Brunel Pension Partnership, Greater Manchester Pension Fund and Merseyside Pension Fund, asked Shell to provide more information on how its growth assumptions are compatible with global energy demand and its plans to be net zero by 2050.
In its response from Monday, Shell defended its LNG strategy, saying the superchilled gas will be a vital balancing fuel for a future energy system and that its projects were competitive in terms of cost and emissions.
Global gas consumption may peak in the 2030s and has peaked in some regions such as Europe and Japan, the oil major added. But global LNG demand is expected under most independent outlooks to continue to grow to 2040, if not beyond, Shell said.
LNG will make up more than half of overall natural gas demand growth to 2040, with Asia making up 70% of that growth, it added.
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