- Ohioans issued a major rebuke to Republican officials on Tuesday night.
- Voters rejected a gambit to get ahead of an abortion rights vote this November.
- The result illustrates that the GOP is still struggling to figure out how to talk about abortion post-Roe.
So goes Ohio. That’s how a generation of political pundits used to respond to swing state’s results on presidential election nights, knowing that it could almost reliably predict control of the White House. Ohio is much redder now, but Tuesday’s results in an early face-off over abortion rights illustrate a much more troubling bellwether for the GOP.
Ohioans did not explicitly vote on abortion rights on Tuesday. Regardless, they sent a major rebuke to key state Republican leaders as they rejected an effort to get ahead of a November abortion vote.
Not long after 8 p.m., just a half hour after polls closed, margins were so lopsided that Decision Desk HQ and the Columbus Dispatch projected that voters would reject the proposed amendment.
The hastily-scheduled special election on Issue 1 was about whether to increase the threshold necessary to amend the state’s constitution. The timing and even the comments of some Republicans made clear it was about abortion, though. Specifically, conservatives wanted to deal a potentially lethal blow to an abortion rights amendment before voters even consider it this November.
It failed.
Trying to claw back voters’ power is now the latest gambit to fail in the wake of Roe’s reversal. The Ohio results illustrate that more than a year later, Americans remain animated over the Supreme Court gutting abortion rights.
Issue 1 sparked turnout that the Columbus Dispatch reported surprised election officials.
They may try to find a safe harbor in the culture war du jour, but Americans are far more agitated about abortion restrictions than worried about their gas grills. Just a few years ago, abortion was still a taboo issue in Democratic politics. Their leaders defended the Hyde Amendment that banned most federal funds from being used for an abortion.
Now, strategists are plotting votes guaranteeing abortion rights in just about every state they can find.
Abortion rights activists have now stood down efforts to pass restrictions in Kansas, Kentucky, and Montana. Meanwhile, they’ve written abortion protections into the constitution in states such as Michigan. Ohio may very well join its neighbor later this November.
Conservatives were elated that they realized their decades-long effort to gut Roe. Instead, it has turned into a reoccurring nightmare whenever the issue is on the ballot.
Anti-abortion groups that were once in almost lockstep with GOP leaders are warring with presidential candidates and lawmakers who refuse to back nationwide abortion bans that range from unpopular (15 weeks) to a near-career ender (6 weeks).
This is not to say abortion opponents have struck out. Roe’s reversal opened the door to abortion bans that were ready to go. Abortion rights activists have been left to fight a bevy of court battles with limited successes in often heavily conservative courts. More states are trying to enact greater bans, such as Florida, where Gov. Ron DeSantis pushed a ban on almost all abortions after 6 weeks into law. Some Republicans want to go even further, by restricting pills used for medicated abortions or by limiting out-of-state travel for abortions.
Polls show those types of restrictions are almost comically unpopular.
Tuesday’s result may quickly be the least of the GOP’s worries. The prospect of the issue coming up in a key 2024 state is becoming more likely each day.
Activists in Arizona have already taken steps to put the issue on the ballot next year.
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