War drums beat louder as Israel kills Hezbollah commander and Lebanese group launches massive missile attack.
Beirut, Lebanon – Hezbollah fired more than 200 missiles and rockets across its southern border on Wednesday in one of its heaviest attacks on northern Israel since the 2006 war.
The day before, Israel had assassinated Taleb Abdullah, the most senior Hezbollah commander killed since October 8.
What happened on Tuesday and Wednesday is the latest intensification of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon, as negotiations for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas seem to be coming to a head.
Israel has killed more than 37,000 Palestinians in Gaza since October 7, the day Hamas led an attack on Israel, killing 1,139 people and capturing some 240.
Israel faces genocide charges for its actions in Gaza in a case brought to the International Criminal of Justice by South Africa.
Analysts told media a Gaza ceasefire could shift Israel’s military focus to Lebanon, where it has exchanged attacks with Hezbollah since the day after October 7.
The exchanges across Lebanon’s southern border are not exactly tit-for-tat.
media found in an April investigation that Israel had launched more than five attacks on Lebanon for every attack from Hezbollah.
While tensions are increasing along the border, analysts believe Israel would struggle to widen the war on Lebanon without first a ceasefire in Gaza.
“The Israelis will not enlarge their fight with Lebanon as long as there is [still] one single shot in Gaza,” Tannous Mouawad, a retired brigadier general in the Lebanese army, told media. “When [a ceasefire is achieved in] Gaza, the Israelis will definitely turn towards Lebanon.”
The Israeli government, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, is under domestic pressure tas the school year approaches and more than 90,000 people remain displaced from their homes in northern Israel.
Politicians say Hezbollah needs to be pushed back from the border before civilians can safely return – although many have reportedly decided not to come back.
Is there a connection?
Netanyahu said last week that Israel is “prepared for a very intense operation” on the border with Lebanon.
“An opinion poll published by [Israeli newspaper] Maariv … showed [that] over 70 percent of Israelis want to do away with Hezbollah,” Karim Emile Bitar, professor of international relations at Saint Joseph’s University in Beirut, told media.
A push for war against Hezbollah and Lebanon does not mean an assured victory for Israel.
Bitar said any war would be “extraordinarily counterproductive” and could inflict heavy suffering on both the Lebanese and Israelis.
“[It will not be] a walk in the park [for Israel],” he added. “The idea that they could occupy south Lebanon shows that they have learned nothing from Israeli history.”
Israel invaded south Lebanon in 1978 and 1982 during the country’s civil war, aiming to push out Palestinian groups.
Hezbollah itself, a Lebanese Shia group with close ties to Iran, was formed in 1982 in response to Israel’s invasion.
Israel also occupied south Lebanon from 1985 until 2000, after Hezbollah and other Lebanese forces pushed Israeli troops back across the border.
An invasion would likely give Israel “much more than it bargained for” Bitar said.
Today, Hezbollah is generally believed to be the world’s strongest non-state actor, which means its military capabilities are significantly stronger than those of Hamas.
Until now, it has largely struck military targets near the north of Israel but, analysts say, it striking military targets in areas like Tel Aviv, which is surrounded by civilian infrastructure, would be more problematic for Israel.
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