SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars managed to fend off selling pressure on Monday, as the results of a key inflation report at home and a trio of major central bank meetings this week could help reverse their recent downward trajectory.
The Aussie rose 0.2% to $0.6560, having tumbled 2.1% last week to a three-month low of $0.6510. Resistance lies around the 200-day moving average of $0.6590.
The outcome of a second quarter inflation report due on Wednesday would make or break the case for a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia next week.
Currently, markets are wagering on a 20% chance for a hike.
Economists expect a modest re-acceleration in the headline figures, and importantly core inflation – measured in the trimmed mean index – is forecast to be sticky at an annual rise of 4.0%, which would ramp up pressure for a tightening.
Australia, NZ dollars set for biggest two-week drop
ANZ noted that prices for administered or indexed inflation are still running too high, but inflation on non-administered and non-indexed items is almost back to target on a six-month annualised basis.
“We think the RBA will look through some of the inflation it can’t ‘control’ even if the Q2 CPI prints a little above the RBA’s forecasts and see the board holding the cash rate steady at 4.35% at its August meeting,” said Blair Chapman, a senior economist at ANZ.
The kiwi dollar bounced 0.2% to $0.59, after falling 2% last week to a three-month trough of $0.5873.
It has support at $0.5853, the low from April.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England will meet this week and open the door to easing, while the Bank of Japan could raise interest rates on Wednesday, which will have implications on the yen and the popular carry trade.
The Australian dollar steadied at 100.59 yen, having lost 4.4% last week to be well off its 33-year peak of 109.67.
American Dollar Exchange Rate