Coffee rallies on tight stocks and wider relief over tariff reprieves

LONDON: Coffee prices rose on Tuesday as investor focus returned to extremely tight stocks and relief in wider markets after U.S. President Donald Trump’s latest changes in tariff policy.

Investors remain concerned that a global trade war could weaken economic growth, but major stock indexes have experienced relief rallies this week after Trump’s various tariff pauses and reprieves.

Coffee

Arabica coffee futures traded on the ICE exchange rose 2.5% to $3.6750 per lb by 1152 GMT, having lost 2.7% last week. Robusta coffee futures were up 2.1% at $5,347 a metric ton, having declined by 1.5% last week.

Consultancy Safras & Mercado said Brazilian farmers have sold only 14% of the 2025/26 coffee crop, versus a 25% long-term average for the period, citing uncertainty over production prospects.

A dealer said he expects arabica to recover to a range of $3.60 to $3.80 per lb this week, given supply jitters and tight stocks.

Robusta coffee rallies amid supply jitters, tariff exemptions

Cocoa

London cocoa futures fell 0.8% to 5,926 pounds a ton after dropping 3% last week. New York cocoa fell 0.2% to $8,140 a ton, having lost 1% last week.

Cocoa investors continue to fear a downturn in demand for the chocolate ingredient, with first-quarter cocoa grind data – a measure of demand – likely to show steep falls of 5-7%, dealers said.

Against that, however, most areas of Ivory Coast, Cameroon and Nigeria are expected to receive beneficial rain over the next week to 10 days and stocks in ICE warehouses continue to creep up.

Sugar

Raw sugar lost 0.6% to 17.76 cents per lb while white sugar fell 1.4% to $520.10 a ton.

“Uncertain demand driven by an uncertain global economic outlook remains a concern,” said broker ADMISI.

Elsewhere, France’s farm ministry estimated the sugar beet area for this year’s harvest at 391,000 hectares, down from 412,000 hectares in 2024 and 2.9% below the five-year average.

Sugar production in top producer Brazil’s centre-south region was nearly 10% higher than a year earlier in the second half of March as mills allocated more cane to sugar production rather than ethanol, industry group UNICA said.