Russian rouble firms vs dollar, bolstered by stronger oil

MOSCOW: The Russian rouble strengthened against the US dollar and China’s yuan on Thursday, boosted by stronger oil as well as news about the European Union dropping the idea of sanctions on Russia’s liquefied natural gas imports.

At 0825 GMT the rouble was up about 1% to 82.20 against the dollar.

The rouble, supported by optimism about easing tensions between Russia and the United States, rallied by 37% against the dollar since the start of the year while the dollar has weakened by 27% against the rouble during the same period.

Analysts highlighted an uncertainty about the mandatory forex sales regulation which expires on April 30, with the finance ministry insisting on the extension of the requirement for exporters to sell 40% of forex revenue for another year.

The central bank said it sees no grounds for the extension since the supply of foreign currency is stable while exporting companies’ foreign currency revenues may soon fall as a result of global economic turbulence caused by US trade tariffs.

“In the event of non-renewal of the decree on mandatory forex sales, the rouble’s exchange rate, in our estimation, will reach the level of 100 in the second half of 2025,” Sinara bank analysts said.

Goldman Sachs said this week the rouble would depreciate to 100 against the dollar by mid-summer and will slide further to 107 to the dollar by the end of the year, aligning with the projected oil price at $62 per barrel.

Oil prices rose to $66.20 per barrel on Thursday on the prospect of tighter supply after the United States imposed further sanctions to curb Iranian oil trade.

Russian rouble up vs dollar but Goldman sees it tracking cheaper oil soon

“The rouble will be extremely volatile due to potential external shocks, and the easing of sanctions may have a negative impact on the currency,” Expert RA rating agency’s analysts said.

Against the Chinese yuan, which is used by Russia’s central bank for its foreign exchange interventions and is currently the most traded foreign currency in Russia, the rouble was up 0.7% at 11.30 on the Moscow Stock Exchange.