Oil falls as economic jitters dampen demand outlook

SINGAPORE: Crude oil prices fell on Tuesday as investors lowered their demand growth expectations due to the ongoing trade war between the United States and China, the world’s two biggest economies.

Brent crude futures fell by 44 cents, or 0.7%, to $65.42 per barrel by 0400 GMT.

US West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 40 cents, or 0.6%, to $61.65 a barrel.

Both benchmarks fell more than $1 on Monday.

“Markets are closely monitoring the US-China trade negotiations, understanding that deteriorating trade relations between the world’s two largest economies could lead the global economy towards a recession,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova.

“The lack of confidence in future demand and the absence of concrete signals for demand revival in mainland China will continue to overshadow oil prices.”

US President Donald Trump’s push to reshape world trade by imposing tariffs on all US imports has created a high risk that the global economy will slip into a recession this year, according to a majority of economists in a Reuters poll.

China, hit with the steepest of those tariffs, has responded with its own levies against US imports, stoking a trade war between the top two oil consuming nations.

That has prompted analysts to sharply lower their oil demand and price forecasts.

Barclays on Monday cut its 2025 Brent crude price forecast by $4 to $70 a barrel, citing elevated trade tensions and a pivot in production strategy by the OPEC+ group as drivers of a 1 million barrel per day oil supply surplus this year.

Oil prices stable amid economic uncertainty, OPEC+ supply fears

Meanwhile, several members of OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, will suggest an acceleration of output hikes for a second consecutive month in June, sources told Reuters last week.

“A substantial (oil) price decrease appears probable if exporting countries boost production,” oil analyst Philip Verleger said in a note.

US crude oil stockpiles also likely rose by about 500,000 barrels in the week ended April 15, according to a preliminary Reuters poll of analysts on Monday.

Industry group American Petroleum Institute will publish its estimates on US oil inventories on Tuesday. Official figures from the Energy Information Administration will follow on Wednesday.