Headline Inflation YoY
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Pakistan’s headline inflation clocked in at 0.3% on a year-on-year basis in April 2025, a reading below that of March 2025 when it stood at 0.7%, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Friday.
On a month-on-month basis, it decreased by 0.8% in April 2025 as compared to an increase of 0.9% in the previous month and a decrease of 0.4% in April 2024.
“This is an all-time low considering the rebasing effect,” said a market analyst.
CPI inflation average during 10MFY25 stood at 4.73% as compared to 25.97% in 10MFY24.
Inflation in Pakistan has been a significant and persistent economic challenge, particularly in recent years. In May 2023, the CPI inflation rate hit a record high of 38%. However, it has been on a downward trajectory since then.
The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), which is scheduled to meet on Monday, in its last meeting decided to maintain the policy rate stable at 12%.
The market expects another status quo in the upcoming meeting amid geopolitical tension and the inflation outlook.
The central bank had cut the rate by 1,000 basis points since June from an all-time high of 22% before holding it in March, citing the risk of price rises, including from increased US tariffs.
Meanwhile, the latest CPI reading was in line with the projections made by several brokerage houses.
Topline Securities projected Pakistan’s headline inflation to fall below 0.5% in April.
“Pakistan’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for Apr 2025 is expected to bottom out and clock in below 0.50% YoY. The inflation is expected to remain in range of 0.05% to 0.5% YoY (-0.8% MoM,) taking 10MFY25 average to 4.87% compared to 26.22% in 10MFY24,” Topline said.
“The inflation is expected to be lower due to a significant fall in food and electricity prices,” the report added.
Urban, rural inflation
The PBS said CPI inflation urban decreased to 0.5% on a year-on-year basis in April 2025 as compared to 1.2% in the previous month and 19.4% in April 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, it decreased by 0.7% in April 2025 as compared to an increase of 0.8% in the previous month and a decrease of 0.1% in April 2024.
CPI inflation rural decreased by 0.1% on a year-on-year basis in April 2025 as compared to no change observed in the previous month and 14.5% in April 2024.
On a month-on-month basis, it decreased by 1% in April 2025 as compared to an increase of 1.1% in the previous month and a decrease of 0.9% in April 2024.
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