LONDON: Asian spot liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices rose for the third week running to a two-week high amid renewed demand, weak production in Malaysia and as Egypt seeks to secure huge volumes for the rest of the year.
The average LNG price for July delivery into north-east Asia was at $12.40 per million British thermal units (mmBtu), up from $11.75/mmBtu last week, industry sources estimated.
“The market has been on a rising trend since its recent lows at the start of the month, though overall it remains a long way down from its mid-February highs,” said Alex Froley, senior LNG analyst at data intelligence firm ICIS.
Froley attributed the rise to buying interest from Asian importers including Bangladesh and Taiwan, and to reports of Egypt looking to secure large volumes over the rest of the year.
The Asian market continues to monitor LNG supply outages in Australia and Malaysia, said Laura Page, head of LNG insight at data analytics firm Kpler.
Page said that Australia’s North West Shelf plant ceased LNG exports between May 16-22, while exports out of Malaysia’s Bintulu complex have been on a steep downward trajectory.
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“While part of the reduction is due to planned maintenance, the severity of the decline suggests there may also be an unplanned issue affecting capacity,” she said.
Martin Senior, head of LNG pricing at Argus, said that weekly loadings at Malaysia’s Bintulu have fallen to 13-year low and a growing number of ships are holding off the shore of the facility waiting for production to pick up again.
He added that hot weather forecasts for parts of north-east Asia and southern Europe could boost early summer cooling demand.
In Europe, gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub rose this week on the back of Norwegian maintenance and worries about Ukraine peace talks which have not seen that much progress.
“Looking ahead, TTF prices could increase slightly as heavy pipeline maintenance continues in Norway, despite weather forecasts anticipating strong renewable generation and a gradual rise in temperatures across the continent,” Kpler’s Page said.
Europe’s underground gas storage is building up reasonably comfortably and supply is increasing, ICIS’ Froley said, adding that possible EU storage target reductions should prevent major price rises, although downside could be limited by potential new demand from Asian buyers entering the market as prices move lower.
S&P Global Commodity Insights assessed its daily North West Europe LNG Marker (NWM) price benchmark for cargoes delivered in July on an ex-ship (DES) basis at $11.646/mmBtu on May 22, a $0.55/mmBtu discount to the July futures price at the TTF hub.
Argus assessed the price for July delivery at $11.510/mmBtu, while Spark Commodities assessed the June price at $11.467/mmBtu.
The U.S. arbitrage to north-east Asia via the Cape of Good Hope decreased this week but was still pointing towards Europe, while the arbitrage via Panama continues to point to Asia, said Spark Commodities analyst Qasim Afghan.
In the LNG freight market, Atlantic rates dropped to $32,000/day on Friday, while Pacific rates dropped to $20,750/day, Afghan added.
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