Oil falls as Chinese, US economic data raise fuel demand concerns

Oil prices fell on Friday as concerning economic data from the US and China, the world’s two largest oil users, increased worries about fuel demand while investors also await the summit between US President Donald Trump and Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

Brent crude futures fell 39 cents, or 0.58%, to $66.45 a barrel by 0750 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude futures declined 42 cents, or 0.66%, to $63.54.

For the week, WTI is set to drop 0.5% while Brent is set to decline 0.2%.

Chinese government data released on Friday showed factory output growth slumped to an eight-month low and retail sales growth expanded at its slowest pace since December, weighing on sentiment despite stronger oil throughput in the world’s second-largest crude user.

Government data released on Friday showed throughput at Chinese refineries rose 8.9% year-on-year in July, however, that was down from June levels, which were the highest since September 2023.

Despite the rising throughput, China’s oil product exports last month were also up from a year ago, suggesting lower domestic fuel demand.

Forecasts of a growing oil market surplus also weighed on sentiment, as did the prospect of higher-for-longer US interest rates.

Bank of America analysts said in a Thursday note they were widening their forecast for the oil market surplus citing growing supplies from OPEC+, a group consisting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and other allies.

The analysts now project an average surplus of 890,000 barrels per day from July 2025 through June 2026.

That forecast follows predictions earlier this week from the International Energy Agency saying the oil market looks “bloated” after the OPEC+ increases.

In the US, higher-than-expected inflation data and weak jobs numbers have raised concerns that the Federal Reserve is less likely to cut interest rates next month.

Lower rates typically boost economic activity, which is a positive for oil demand. Investors are also awaiting Friday’s meeting between Trump and Putin in Alaska where a ceasefire in the Ukraine war is at the top of the agenda and ahead of which Trump had said he believes Russia is prepared to end the war in Ukraine.

A ceasefire could lead to the easing of sanctions on Russian oil supply. Reuters