SYDNEY: The Australian and New Zealand dollars slipped towards their three-week lows on Tuesday, having bounced briefly overnight, as investors await the New Zealand government’s pick for its next central bank governor.
An announcement on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected at 1 p.m. local time (0100 GMT) on Wednesday, the finance minister’s office said on Tuesday. Earlier, a Bloomberg report said the country was set to appoint a woman from overseas to head its central bank for the first time.
That would come as a surprise to markets.
The kiwi slipped 0.2% to $0.5858 on Tuesday, after gaining 0.2% overnight to bounce away from a three-week low of $0.5843.
It remained well off its recent high of 60 cents before a surprisingly poor GDP report last week fuelled bets of more policy easing. Investors are fully priced for a quarter-point cut to 2.75% in October, with a one-in-four chance of 50 basis points.
“The pricing of a slightly lower terminal rate is likely to add to the downward pressure on the NZ dollar,” said Darren Gibbs, a senior economist at Westpac.
“Given US dollar weakness, we expect that the NZ dollar’s struggles will be more evident on the crosses. For example, we expect NZD/AUD will end this year around 0.87.”
Indeed, those easing prospects have already left the kiwi near a three-year low against the Aussie at A$0.8884, aided by comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock that Australia’s economy is in a good place.
Against the US dollar, the Aussie eased 0.1% to $0.6593, after eking out a gain of 0.2% overnight.
It is also well off its recent 11-month top of $0.6707 as the greenback rebounded a little after the Federal Reserve’s decision last week to cut rates for the first time this year.
Morgan Stanley recommended long AUD/USD positions to clients, citing factors such as fewer than expected rate cuts from the RBA, expected AUD-positive hedging flows from Australian superannuation funds and higher commodity prices.
“We would not expect AUD to be trading significantly below current levels based on historical betas to a range of macro variables,” said Chris Nicol, a strategist at Morgan Stanley Australia.
“We therefore recommend long AUD/USD positions targeting 0.7100 with a 0.6450 stop.”
American Dollar Exchange Rate