Coffee prices edge higher but overall sentiment bearish

LONDON: Coffee futures traded on ICE edged higher on Friday as technical trade signals prompted speculators to buy, though the gains are expected to be short-lived amid ample supplies.

Cocoa prices meanwhile also rose.

Coffee

Robusta coffee edged up 0.2% to $3,356 a metric ton by 1018 GMT, moving further away from a 16-month low of $3,166 hit on Tuesday.

Dealers in top robusta grower Vietnam said short-covering or buying from several local exporters had supported sentiment and boosted internal buying across the supply chain.

Overall though, the outlook is bearish thanks to newly harvested crops in Brazil and Indonesia.

“Favourable weather in Vietnam has (also) supported expectations for a stronger harvest, with our forecast for the 2025/26 season revised to a 5.2% y-o-y increase,” said BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions.

Arabica coffee rose 0.2% to $2.9750 per lb.

BMI said concerns over demand destruction had peaked due to the prospect of a 50% U.S. trade tariff on imports of coffee beans from top arabica grower Brazil, scheduled for August 1.

“Reflecting these dynamics, our latest forecast lowers the average (2025) price from $3.40/lb to $3.00/lb,” said BMI.

Robusta coffee prices fall while sugar and cocoa also ease

Cocoa

London cocoa rose 1.6% to $5,281 a metric ton.

Dealers said speculators were scaling back short positions or bets on price falls, but that the downtrend is intact, with reports next week from Hershey and Mondelez expected to provide more insight on falling demand.

Small players in top grower Ivory Coast’s cocoa industry say they fear they will go out of business due to the cost of complying with new European Union regulations on the import of commodities linked to deforestation.

New York cocoa rose 1% to $7,550 a ton.

Sugar

Raw sugar fell 1% to 16.40 cents/lb, having settled up 2% on Thursday.

Pakistan has issued an international tender to purchase 100,000 metric tons of white refined sugar, European traders said.

Sugar is under pressure from ample harvests in key producers India and Thailand. An output uptick in top grower Brazil is also expected this month, as dry conditions are believed to have supported the harvest, dealers said.

White sugar fell 1.5% to $473.10 a metric ton, having gained 1.9% on Thursday.