Forced curtailments, low demand drag down Pakistan’s oil & gas output in FY25 – Markets

Oil and gas production in Pakistan declined significantly by 12% and 7% year-on-year (YoY), respectively, in FY25, as output from key fields remained under pressure due to forced curtailments and lower gas demand.

“The contraction in hydrocarbon output comes amid forced curtailments at Nashpa, TAL and other blocks due to lower gas demand,” said Arif Habib Limited (AHL), in its report released on Thursday.

As per the report, major oil fields such as Nashpa, Makori East, Pasakhi, Adhi, Taj, Mardenkhel, Maramzai, Rajian, and Umar experienced a drop in production during FY25.

In terms of gas production, key fields including Mari, Qadirpur, Sui, Sharf, Kandhkot, Naimat West, and Sutiari Deep registered a decline.

On a quarterly basis, oil and gas production in Pakistan decreased by 15% and 10% YoY, respectively, in 4QFY25.

Pakistan Petroleum Limited commissions new exploratory well in Sujawal

Speaking to media, Iqbal Jawaid, Senior Investment Analyst at AHL, said that the decline in hydrocarbon production this fiscal year “was primarily due to weak gas demand from the consumers”.

“The problem is that RLNG gas is available in the system, and as per our agreement with Qatar, the government is bound to purchase it. So, what is within the government’s control? Domestic gas production… hence, local production was curtailed in FY25,” he said.

The analyst was of the view that due to gas curtailment oil production was also curtailed, as both are extracted together.

Commenting on the economic impact, Jawaid noted that with lower oil production in Pakistan, our reliance on imported crude further increases.

“The only way out of all this is renegotiating the RLNG deal in March 2026,” he said.

The senior analyst explained that under the original agreement signed in 2016, the terms can be renegotiated after 10 years.

“At that point, the government can seek a reduction in RLNG rates and volumes. If this happens, domestic gas and oil volumes are likely to increase, and gas prices — influenced by the lower RLNG rate — will also decline,” he said.

Meanwhile, as per the report, a total of 23 exploratory wells and 30 appraisal/development wells were spudded during FY25, against a target of 27 exploratory wells and 40 appraisal/development wells.

“The exploration efforts of Pakistani E&P companies in the listed space yielded 21 discoveries during FY25, with a cumulative discovery size of approximately ~3,187 bopd of condensate and ~303 mmcfd of gas,” AHL said.

Oil and gas production in Pakistan declined significantly by 12% and 7% year-on-year (YoY), respectively, in FY25, as output from key fields remained under pressure due to forced curtailments and lower gas demand.

“The contraction in hydrocarbon output comes amid forced curtailments at Nashpa, TAL and other blocks due to lower gas demand,” said Arif Habib Limited (AHL), in its report released on Thursday.

As per the report, major oil fields such as Nashpa, Makori East, Pasakhi, Adhi, Taj, Mardenkhel, Maramzai, Rajian, and Umar experienced a drop in production during FY25.

In terms of gas production, key fields including Mari, Qadirpur, Sui, Sharf, Kandhkot, Naimat West, and Sutiari Deep registered a decline.

On a quarterly basis, oil and gas production in Pakistan decreased by 15% and 10% YoY, respectively, in 4QFY25.

Pakistan Petroleum Limited commissions new exploratory well in Sujawal

Speaking to media, Iqbal Jawaid, Senior Investment Analyst at AHL, said that the decline in hydrocarbon production this fiscal year “was primarily due to weak gas demand from the consumers”.

“The problem is that RLNG gas is available in the system, and as per our agreement with Qatar, the government is bound to purchase it. So, what is within the government’s control? Domestic gas production… hence, local production was curtailed in FY25,” he said.

The analyst was of the view that due to gas curtailment oil production was also curtailed, as both are extracted together.

Commenting on the economic impact, Jawaid noted that with lower oil production in Pakistan, our reliance on imported crude further increases.

“The only way out of all this is renegotiating the RLNG deal in March 2026,” he said.

The senior analyst explained that under the original agreement signed in 2016, the terms can be renegotiated after 10 years.

“At that point, the government can seek a reduction in RLNG rates and volumes. If this happens, domestic gas and oil volumes are likely to increase, and gas prices — influenced by the lower RLNG rate — will also decline,” he said.

Meanwhile, as per the report, a total of 23 exploratory wells and 30 appraisal/development wells were spudded during FY25, against a target of 27 exploratory wells and 40 appraisal/development wells.

“The exploration efforts of Pakistani E&P companies in the listed space yielded 21 discoveries during FY25, with a cumulative discovery size of approximately ~3,187 bopd of condensate and ~303 mmcfd of gas,” AHL said.