Gulf markets end mixed ahead of Fed meeting

Stock markets in the Gulf ended mixed on Monday, as growing expectation of a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week supported some indexes and weighed on others.

U.S. consumer spending rose moderately in September after three straight months of solid gains, suggesting a loss of momentum in the economy at the end of the third quarter as a lacklustre labour market and rising cost of living curbed demand.

Dovish commentary from several Fed officials has further fuelled expectations of monetary easing.

CME’s FedWatch tool shows markets are pricing in roughly an 88% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at the Fed’s meeting this week.

The Fed’s stance holds implications for Gulf economies, where most currencies are pegged to the U.S. dollar, making it an anchor for regional monetary stability.

Saudi Arabia’s benchmark stock index eased 0.1%, hit by a 0.4% fall in oil giant Saudi Aramco and a 3% decline in Dar Al Arkan Real Estate Development.

Oil prices – a catalyst for the Gulf’s financial markets – declined on Monday as investors monitored ongoing talks to end the war in Ukraine ahead of an expected U.S. Fed interest rate cut this week.

Crude prices, even after the recent rebound, are still hovering near multi-month lows, putting pressure on the fiscal balances of oil-dependent Gulf nations through lower revenues.

Dubai’s benchmark stock index gained 0.3%, with budget airlines Air Arabia advancing 2.2%.

The Dubai market appears well-positioned for further upside, as Wednesday’s Fed meeting could reinforce current momentum, supported by strong corporate and economic fundamentals, said Joseph Dahrieh, Managing Principal at Tickmill.

In Abu Dhabi, the index was down 0.1%.

Although the recent rebound in oil prices provided some support to market sentiment last week, the boost seems modest amid the prevailing bearish medium-term outlook for crude, said Dahrieh.

The Qatari benchmark added 0.3%, with Qatar National Bank , the Gulf’s biggest lender by assets, climbing 1.9%.

Outside the Gulf, Egypt’s blue-chip index gained 0.5%.