Here’s what could happen to the Wagner Group after the armed rebellion against Russia failed

• The Wagner paramilitary group attempted an armed rebellion in Russia but failed. 
• Its leader, former convict Yevgeny Prigozhin, was exiled to Belarus. 
• Experts explain what could be next for Prigozhin and his mercenaries. 

Within 36 hours, the Wagner paramilitary group’s armed uprising against Russia’s military command was over. 

The group was around 125 miles from Moscow after a supposed deal was struck that would see their leader, ex-convict Yevgeny Prigozhin, go into exile in Belarus.

Now, its future hangs in the balance.

Experts believe, however, that the failed uprising will not spell out an end to the army of merecenaries, which has a presence not just in Eastern Europe, but throughout Africa and the Middle East, according to The Times. 

Here is what could happen to the group:

Some are joining Prighozin in Belarus

In an address to the nation earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin said that Wagner’s fighters could either enlist with the Russian army, follow Prigozhin to Belarus, or return home.

Around 1,000 Wagner fighters have already decided to go to Belarus, the independent Russian media outlet Meduza reported, citing a source in Russia’s Ministry of Defense.

British intelligence services estimated that around 8,000 mercenaries were involved in the march on Moscow. Insider is unable to verify this number independently. 

Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko told reporters earlier this week that he had offered Wagner troops an “abandoned base” in Belarus, The Guardian reported. He did not say how many had already come. 

Prigozhin has not commented whether some of his mercenaries planned to follow him to the neighboring country.

Some fighters have decided not to go to Belarus or join the Russian army, according to a Wagner mercenary. 

The Wagner fighter told Meduza: “Not all went with Prigozhin: some units remained. Some hang out in the Luhansk and Donbas regions. Some are still in the Krasnodar territory.”

Krasnodar is located in the North Caucasus region of southern Russia.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense is not appealing to Wagner fighters

Some experts believe that many Wagner recruits refuse to fight for Russia because they aren’t paid enough. 

The paramilitary pays fighters twice as much as the Russian military, the German-Marshall Fund reported last year. Putin admitted earlier this week that from May last year to May 2023, the Russian state paid more than 86 billion rubles ($940 million) to the Wagner Group.

Dr. Joana de Deus Pereira, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) Europe specializing in counter-terrorism, told Insider that the fighters care about getting paid.

“So, above all, it’s about money. Secondly, some of these individuals who are at the top of the organization would be easy targets if they enroll in the Ministry of Defense,” she told Insider.

“Also, I think in terms of capability, they can easily either create a new paramilitary organization or join already the ones that are running, than to join the Ministry of Defense,” she added. 

A rebrand and turning to Africa 

While Prigozhin and Wagner’s advance caused a stir inside Russia, the group also has interests in other countries worldwide, having fought in Libya, Syria, the Central African Republic, and Mali, among other places.

De Deus Pereira told Insider that this is where many fighters will return. 

“We have to understand that Wagner has been working in Africa for several months, years even. So it will probably undergo a rebranding operation,” she said. “They absolutely need their operations to continue in these countries.”

Julia Stanyard, from the Global Initiative against Transnational Organized Crime, told the BBC that Prigozhin might also head to the continent, saying it is likely he “will retain control and ultimate responsibility for the Wagner operations in Africa.”

Prigozhin’s future

It is less unclear what Prigozhin’s future looks like.

Lukashenko told reporters earlier this week that he convinced Putin not to “wipe out” the Wagner chief after the failed rebellion, though some experts have disagreed.

De Deus Pereira told Insider that even if Prigozhin decides to step back from the group, it will continue without him, adding that there are at least 25 paramilitary organizations other than Wagner currently operating in Russia, some of which have links to Russia’s Ministry of Defense. 

“Wagner has had many faces. Before Prigozhin, there were others,” she said. “It’s very easy to take the place or to put a new face in front of this organization.”