MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is set to play catch-up at Friday’s open after patchy holiday flows and losses in the non-deliverable market drove it beyond the 91-per-dollar level.
The 1-month non-deliverable forward (NDF) indicated that the rupee will open in the 91.02 to 91.06 range to the US dollar, having settled at 90.6675 on Wednesday.
With Mumbai, the primary hub for rupee trading, shut for a holiday on Thursday, trading was confined to other domestic centres and offshore desks.
The local currency’s slide past the 91 mark was sizeable as it occurred in holiday-thinned trade, a setting in which big moves are relatively uncommon, bankers said.
One banker pointed to sustained pressure on the rupee in the non-deliverable forwards, while highlighting that a large public sector bank was aggressively buying dollars.
With liquidity far from optimal due to the Mumbai holiday, the flows had an outsized impact, exaggerating the move in the currency, bankers said.
Indian equities plunged on Thursday, oil prices climbed and the dollar extended its rally for the week, compounding the hit to the rupee.
The drop past 91 is significant considering that the Reserve Bank of India has, in recent sessions, resisted a move past that level, with traders reporting intervention around 90.70–90.80.
“The question now is whether the move above 91 sustains or if the RBI steps in again.
In light of the host of negatives (for the rupee), the odds are the move sticks,“ a currency trader at a bank said.
Oil, dollar add pressure
The dollar on Friday was poised to cap its best weekly performance since October, buoyed by a more hawkish Federal Reserve outlook and tensions between the US and Iran. Oil prices rose after the US President ramped up threats on Iran.
American Dollar Exchange Rate