NBA Finals ratings seem destined to dip, but the league sees an opportunity to market new superstars

• Few drew up an NBA Finals between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Indiana Pacers.
• TV ratings for this year's championship series are expected to dip.
• But the NBA's marketing team sees an opportunity to introduce new superstars.

This isn't the NBA Finals many imagined, but the league sees opportunity nonetheless.

The series will be a small-market showdown between the mighty Oklahoma City Thunder and the upstart Indiana Pacers. And betting markets have the Pacers at 5-to-1 odds to upset the Thunder, who won a staggering 68 regular-season games.

That combination means TV ratings for these Finals may sag. Even some at the league office acknowledge that this year's Finals ratings could take a hit without marquee teams.

But NBA marketing chief Tammy Henault told Business Insider she wasn't worried, and sees the series as an opportunity to showcase the next generation of basketball stars, especially to casual fans.

"We get to lean into people — not necessarily teams," Henault said.

The NBA hopes fans will fall further in love with flashy young stars like Indiana's Tyrese Haliburton and OKC's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who was this year's league MVP. SGA, as he's known to many, was the fourth-most-viewed player across the NBA's social media accounts.

"These are the two best teams," said Mark Patricof, the founder of sports private equity firm Patricof Co. "They've got exciting stories to tell. The league just needs to tell their stories."

Although the Thunder are heavy favorites to win the title, there's reason to believe that the Pacers can keep the series close.

"It's not like the Pacers are a Cinderella team," said Bob Carney, the NBA's head of social and digital content. He noted that these two squads have the two best records since January 1, including the playoffs.

Embracing unfamiliar territory: Lesser-known teams

Advertisers would love to see the New York Knicks face the Los Angeles Lakers every June.

Instead, they're getting Oklahoma City — the 47th-largest US TV market — versus the 25th-ranked Indianapolis. Both franchises have historically been successful, but neither is a big brand. And household names like LeBron James and Stephen Curry are nowhere to be found.

ESPN has already sold the ad space for this year's Finals, but if the series is short and full of blowouts, it could have to give advertisers so-called "make-goods," or credits for under-delivered ad time.

The NBA itself is largely insulated from a ratings drop because it signed an 11-year media rights deal with Disney's ESPN, Comcast's NBC, and Amazon last summer. That said, no one at the league wants a boring series that people tune out of.

There hasn't been a small-market Finals matchup like this since 2007, when a young LeBron James carried the undermanned Cleveland Cavaliers to face the juggernaut San Antonio Spurs.

But Carney said that the teams' market size doesn't impact how he and his team market the Finals.

"When you're scrolling through social media, no one's thinking about market size," Carney said. "They want to be entertained. They want to talk hoops. Market size really plays no role in it."

ESPN also isn't reinventing the wheel and will focus on these fast-rising teams chasing their first titles. (The Thunder moved from Seattle, whose SuperSonics won the 1979 NBA title.)

A ratings bump next season?

Regardless of how the series shakes out, both teams may get a ratings bump next season.

The NBA said smaller-market teams have garnered more national buzz and higher TV ratings after making the Finals. The Milwaukee Bucks' ratings soared 21% in the season after winning the 2021 title, while the Denver Nuggets got a 32% ratings boost after their 2023 championship.

That's promising for the NBA, whose playoff ratings have risen 3% from last year to an average of 4.5 million viewers across ABC, ESPN, and TNT.