Oil falls more than 2% on US-China trade tensions and IEA report

LONDON: Oil prices fell by more than 2% on Tuesday as trade tensions flared between the U.S. and China, the world’s two biggest economies, and after the International Energy Agency raised the prospect of increased supplies and weaker demand growth.

Brent crude futures fell $1.38, or 2.2%, to $61.94 a barrel by 1248 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was down 2.3%, or $1.37, at $58.12. Both contracts were at a five-month low.

In the previous session, Brent settled 0.9% higher, and U.S. WTI closed up 1%.

UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said a risk-off mood had taken hold as trade tensions weigh on sentiment and the IEA report was bearish.

Oil rises as US, China try to de-escalate trade tensions

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday that President Donald Trump remained committed to meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea this month, as both countries try to defuse tensions over tariff threats and export controls.

However, developments last week, such as Beijing’s expanded export controls on rare earths and Trump’s threats of 100% tariffs and software export curbs from November 1, have weighed
on sentiment.

On Tuesday, Beijing also announced sanctions against five U.S.-linked subsidiaries of South Korean shipbuilder Hanwha Ocean, while the U.S. and China will begin charging additional port fees on ocean shipping firms.

Meanwhile, the IEA said the world oil market faces a surplusnext year of as much as 4 million barrels per day as OPEC+ producers and rivals lift output and demand remains sluggish.

In its monthly report on Monday, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, and allies including Russia, took a less bearish view than the IEA, saying the oil market’s supply shortfall would shrink in 2026, as the wider OPEC+ alliance proceeds with planned output increases.

The Brent oil futures six-month spread traded at its smallest premium since early May, while the WTI spread was at its narrowest since January 2024.

Narrowing backwardation, the market term for immediate deliveries fetching a premium over later deliveries, suggests investors are making less money from selling their oil in the spot market because near-term supply is perceived to be ample.