BEIJING: Oil prices rose in early trading on Friday following attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure, and as markets evaluated the risk premium from the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, despite a fragile truce agreed between the US and Iran.
Brent crude futures gained 83 cents, or 0.87%, to $96.75 a barrel as of 0100 GMT. West Texas Intermediate futures were up $1.04, 1.06%, at $98.91 a barrel.
“The initial wave of relief following President Trump’s two-week ceasefire announcement has quickly given way to underlying doubts,” IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note.
Iran and the U.S. agreed on Tuesday to a two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, but fighting was still taking place following the announcement.
“All eyes remain firmly on tanker tracker flows through the Strait of Hormuz for any signs of increased activity ahead of peace talks scheduled in Pakistan on Friday,” Sycamore said.
Analysts say Pakistan will try to push in the talks for a more durable peace agreement but may lack the leverage needed to compel the reopening of the key Strait of Hormuz.
Iran wants to charge fees for ships passing through the strait under a peace deal, a Tehran official told Reuters on April 7. Western leaders and the U.N.’s shipping agency have pushed back on the idea.
The crucial artery for oil and gas flows has been effectively shut down by the conflict, which began on February 28 when the U.S. and Israel launched air strikes on Iran.
Pakistan working on ceasefires for Lebanon, Yemen: Reuters report
Brent prices could reach $190 a barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain at the current level, said John Paisie, president of energy consultants Stratas Advisors.
“If Iran allows increasing flows the price of oil will be more moderated, but still well above pre-war levels.”
Attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil production capacity have cut the kingdom’s output by around 600,000 barrels per day (bpd) and reduced throughput on its East-West Pipeline by 700,000 bpd, the Saudi Press Agency reported on Thursday.
The announcement “shifts the narrative from episodic disruption to a measurable supply shock,” JPMorgan analysts said in a research note.
Some 50 infrastructure assets in the Gulf have been damaged by drone and missile strikes over the nearly six weeks since the conflict started, and around 2.4 million bpd of oil refining capacity have been taken offline, according to JPMorgan.
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