Oil prices stable as tariff and Ukraine uncertainty dominates sentiment

LONDON: Oil prices were little changed on Monday after registering a monthly loss for the first time since November, while investors await the outcome of efforts to end the Russia-Ukraine war and repercussions from U.S. tariffs.

Brent crude rose 11 cents, or 0.15%, to $72.92 a barrel by 1105 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 3 cents, or 0.04%, at $69.79.

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Sunday that he believed he could salvage his relationship with U.S. President Donald Trump. However, he said talks needed to continue behind closed doors after the heated Oval Office clash that cut short Zelenskiy’s visit to Washington DC last week.

The dramatic showdown has raised the prospect of an lasting divide between the two leaders, RBC Capital analyst Helima Croft said in a note, adding that it could possibly lead to a swifter removal of U.S. sanctions on Russia.

Sentiment calmed slightly on Sunday as European leaders offered a strong show of support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and promised to do more to help his nation.

The Kremlin on Monday said the London summit pledge to increase funding to Kyiv will not bring about peace.

Oil falls on White House spat, tariffs, Iraq exports

On the tariffs front, U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Sunday that levies on Canada and Mexico will take effect on Tuesday but President Donald Trump will determine whether to stick with the planned 25% level.

“Tariffs might dent economic and oil demand growth, but they also curtail oil supply when directed towards oil producers, such as Canada and Mexico,” said PVM analyst Tamas Varga.

Prices rose in early trading after official data on Saturday that showed that China’s manufacturing activity in February expanded at the fastest pace in three months.

Last month Brent and WTI registered their first monthly declines in three months as the threat of tariffs from the U.S. and its trade partners shook investor confidence in global economic growth this year and reduced appetite for riskier assets.

Meanwhile, analysts are holding their 2025 oil price forecasts largely steady, with Brent averaging at $74.63 abarrel, expecting any impact from further U.S. sanctions to be balanced by ample supply and a possible peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, a Reuters poll showed.