Pakistan’s power generation falls sharply amid rising costs, solarisation

Power generation in Pakistan clocked in at 13,180 GWh (17,714 MW) in August 2024, a decline of over 17% YoY as compared to the same period of the previous year.

Back in August 2023, power generation stood at 15,959 GWh (16,510MW).

On a monthly basis, power generation registered a fall of 11.4% as compared to 14,880 GWh in July.

Moreover, in 2MFY25 (July to August), power generation went down by 8.9% YoY to 28,059 GWh (18,857 MW) compared to 30,798 GWh (20,697 MW) in the same period last year.

Experts attributed the decline in electricity generation to several factors.

Power generation in Pakistan improves, cost declines 10% YoY in May

“The major reason behind the decline is the high electricity charges, leading to lower demand,” said Amad Aamir, an analyst at Arif Habib Limited (AHL).

Aamir added that industrial activity is declining on account of lower demand as consumers battle high inflation, “which has eaten up much of their purchasing power”.

“Moreover, increased solarisation in the country is also leading to the decline. However, currently, it is difficult to calculate the off-grid production by solar.

“Lastly, monsoon rains also kept power demand to a minimum,” he added.

During August 2024, the actual power generation was 13.1% lower than the reference generation, according to AHL.

“This decline in generation is expected to result in higher capacity charges for the 2QFY25 QTA,” added the brokerage house.

Meanwhile, the total cost of generating electricity in the country decreased significantly by 9.3%, clocking in at Rs7.49 KWh in August 2024 compared to Rs8.27 KWh registered in the same period of the previous year.

The decrease in cost is attributed to the decrease in power generation cost from imported coal, which declined to Rs15.83 KWh, a fall of over 21%, as compared to Rs20.14 KWh in SPLY.

In May, hydel emerged as the leading source of power generation, accounting for 40.7% of the generation mix, to become the largest source of electricity generation.

This was followed by nuclear, which accounted for 16.6% of the overall generation, ahead of RLNG, which accounted for 16% of the power generation share.

Among renewables, wind, solar and bagasse generation amounted to 3%, 0.7% and 0.4%, respectively, of the generation mix.