Pakistan’s official energy statistics reflect an incomplete picture of the country’s evolving energy landscape, according to a new research by Renewables First, a think-tank.
The policy paper, titled ‘Electrons In, Hydrocarbons Out: Pakistan’s Quest for Economic and Resource Efficiency’, finds that Pakistan’s continued reliance on imported fossil fuels imposes recurring macroeconomic costs and significant physical energy losses, while consumer-led electrification and renewable energy adoption is more efficient and resilient.
“Much of Pakistan’s energy debate continues to rely on incomplete data. We aim to plug that gap,” said Sohaib Malik, Senior Fellow – Energy Transitions, Renewables First. “Our research shows how the rapid uptake of distributed solar is already reshaping Pakistan’s energy system and provides a more consistent basis for policymakers to achieve energy security and economic resilience,” he added.
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According to the study, Pakistan’s energy statistics have overlooked a growing shift for years. Despite economic growth and expanding population, reported energy supply stayed largely unchanged.
Research shows that this is not due to structural change in the economy or significant efficiency gains but incomplete measurement. Households, farmers, and businesses are installing solar panels to cope with high electricity costs and unreliable supply, creating a parallel energy system outside official reporting.
It further stated that in the fiscal year 2023-24 (FY24) alone, distributed solar PV could have generated 19 TWh of electricity, nearly one-fifth of national grid supply displacing roughly 5 million tonnes of oil equivalent (MTOE) of fossil fuels.
This illustrates that Pakistan’s energy demand did not fall, it shifted into a form the system was never designed to record, as per the study.
The shift becomes more striking when compared to the structure of Pakistan’s fossil-fuel based energy system. Imported oil, gas, and coal impose a heavy macroeconomic burden given the volatility of fossil fuel prices in global markets and Pakistan’s currency depreciation while delivering energy very inefficiently, the research highlighted.
Data concluded that every rupee spent on fossil fuels loses about 59% of its energy value to physical losses.
Unlike fossil fuels, solar PV is a long-term asset. What may appear in trade data as an import expense is the creation of a long-term energy asset that will continue producing electricity for decades, the study maintained.
“This is a structural shift in how foreign exchange is used,” said Nabiya Imran, Associate – Energy Insights at Renewables First and co-author of the paper. “Solar converts upfront imports into decades of domestic energy supply, rather than ongoing fuel dependence.”
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From fiscal year 2017 to 2025, Pakistan imported $7.4 billion worth of solar panels and an additional $2-3 billion in inverters and balance-of-system equipment, the paper read.
Together, these imports represent generation infrastructure rather than fuel consumption. By June 2025, Pakistan had imported around 48 GW of solar PV capacity, which could help avoid $100–120 billion in future fuel imports over its lifetime, the study said.
Accounting for the 50+ GW of solar PV capacity that has been imported to date, these savings would be much higher. The shift converts spending that would otherwise go to volatile fuel markets into a domestic, enduring energy resource, the study said.
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