A Department of Defense official on Tuesday said he believes Russia has already lost as the war extends into its 13th month.
Speaking during a House Armed Services Committee hearing, Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Dr. Colin Kahl added that Russia will come out of the war a “shattered military power” after suffering massive losses.
“Look, I think that if we’re all honest with ourselves about where we thought things would be a year ago when Russia launched this invasion, I think it was a pretty dire, pessimistic assessment. Well, I don’t know how the war is going to end, [but] I think we already know one conclusion for sure, which is Russia has lost,” Kahl said.
“They intended to take over all of Ukraine. That didn’t happen, it’s not going to happen. They intended to divide NATO. NATO is stronger. They intended for Russia to emerge out of this war a great power. They will emerge from this conflict a shattered military power.”
In addition to suggestions that Russia has already lost the war, Dr. Kahl also said he believes Moscow is unlikely to make any significant territorial gains in Ukraine “in the next year or so.”
Kahl made the remarks during a hearing focused on oversight of the Biden administration’s over $32 billion in security aid provided to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion began last year. The military packages have so far included drones, long-range artillery systems, Bradley vehicles and air defense capabilities.
The hearing also comes as Russia’s personnel and equipment losses continue to mount. As of Tuesday, Moscow’s military death toll has reached 149,240, including 550 soldiers who were killed over the past day, per estimates from the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
In comparison, an estimate from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) puts Russia’s military death toll between 60,000 and 70,000.
A CSIS analysis also found that more Russian soldiers have died in the war in Ukraine than in the wars it has fought in since World War II combined. Specifically, the analysis said Russian troops are dying monthly at a rate “at least 25 times the number killed per month in Chechnya and 35 times the number killed in Afghanistan.”
Apart from its military death toll, Russia is also estimated to have lost a total of 3,388 tanks, 6,630 combat armored machines, 2,383 artillery systems, 2,051 UAVs and 5,252 vehicles and fuel tanks.