MOSCOW: Russia has revised up its crude oil export plan from western ports by 200,000 barrels per day (bpd) in August from the initial schedule after Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted refinery operations and freed up more crude for shipment, three people familiar with the matter said.
Export planning remains uncertain, however, due to ongoing strikes and shifting repair schedules, so delays and volume revisions are likely, they said.
“Attacks are ongoing and repair deadlines change daily. It’s unclear how much Russia can load this month or next,” one person said.
Russian oil sellers were yet to receive final loading plans for September, though normally they have the full plan a week before the loading month.
Russia’s Energy Ministry and Transneft oil pipeline monopoly did not immediately respond to requests for comment.
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The disruptions come at a time when Moscow is seeking to raise revenues despite Western sanctions and U.S. pressure on key buyers to reduce imports of its oil.
Loadings from Primorsk, Novorossiisk and Ust-Luga are expected to reach about 2 million barrels per day (bpd), up from an initial plan of 1.8 million bpd, the sources said.
The adjustment follows attacks on 10 Russian refineries this month, which shut down facilities accounting for at least 17% of national processing capacity, or 1.1 million bpd, according to Reuters calculations.
Ukraine also targeted the Druzhba pipeline and the Unecha pumping station in the Bryansk region, a key route for crude deliveries to Ust-Luga, further limiting Russia’s export capacity.
One source estimated that the damage to the Druzhba pipeline and the Ust-Luga route could reduce exports by up to 500,000 bpd. Vessel availability at the end of August is also constrained, limiting Russia’s ability to boost shipments, that person said.
Another source said Ust-Luga port is currently operating at half of its 700,000 bpd capacity and it was not clear when the terminal may start to operate in full. The volumes are being diverted to Novorossiisk and Primorsk, the source added.
Russian western port loadings are typically adjusted based on refinery throughput, as most plants are located in central Russia. Eastern exports remain largely unaffected.
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