Chicago soybean futures edged lower on Friday but remained on track for a modest weekly gain, as a strengthening of the Brazilian real against the US dollar made American soybeans more competitive on global markets.
Wheat futures dipped and were headed for a small weekly drop due to ample supply, despite a Russian agricultural consultancy saying it could lower its estimate for 2026 Russian production if a cold snap continues. Corn also fell slightly and was down over the week, with plenty of grain available.
The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) fell 0.2% to $10.62 a bushel at 0434 GMT, but was up 0.4% week-on-week.
A stronger Brazilian real was putting a “thumb on the scales” for US prices, said Tobin Gorey, founder of agricultural consultants Cornucopia. Brazil is the biggest shipper of soybeans and main competitor for US exports.
Its currency has climbed 3.5% this month against the dollar and rose sharply this week, making Brazilian beans more expensive for overseas buyers relative to US supplies.
“Any extra competitiveness is helpful, given that the US wants to sell a lot more soybeans to non-China destinations this season,” Gorey said.
Brazil, the biggest soybean producer, is likely to ship less soy than expected in January, but the country is now ramping up what is forecast to be a record harvest, holding CBOT prices not far above 2024’s four-year lows.
Meanwhile, soybean and corn harvesting in Argentina advanced slowly last week as rains hampered fields in northern production areas, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange said.
In other crops, CBOT wheat fell 0.1% to $5.15 a bushel and was down 0.6% over the week, while corn slipped 0.3% to $4.22-3/4 a bushel and was set for a 0.5% weekly decline.
Forecast rainfall in Brazil is expected to boost corn production, LSEG said, while raising its corn harvest outlook for Argentina.
Weather forecasters said a winter storm should bring helpful moisture to wheat across the southern US Plains but the cold that follows could put winter wheat at risk in places without insulating snow cover.
American Dollar Exchange Rate