JERUSALEM (news agencies) — The Israel-Hamas war appears to have become much less deadly for Palestinian women and children, according to an news agencies analysis of Gaza Health Ministry data.
The shift is significant because the death rate for women and children is the best available proxy for civilian casualties in one of the 21st century’s most destructive conflicts.
Women and children made up fewer than 40% of those killed in the Gaza Strip during April, down from more than 60% in October. The decline both coincides with Israel’s changing battlefield tactics and contradicts the ministry’s own public statements.
Here are takeaways from media’ reporting.
After Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack, Israel launched an intense aerial bombardment on densely populated Gaza, and then invaded with thousands of ground troops backed by tanks and artillery.
By the end of October women and people 17 and younger accounted for 64% of the 6,745 killed who were fully identified by the Health Ministry.
After saying it had achieved many key objectives, the Israeli army began withdrawing ground troops earlier this year. It has focused lately on drone strikes and limited ground operations.
As the intensity of fighting has scaled back, the death toll has continued to rise, but at a slower rate – and with seemingly fewer civilians caught in the crossfire. During the month of April, women and children made up 38% of the fully identified deaths, the Health Ministry’s most recent data shows.
The ministry announces a new death toll for the war nearly every day. It also has periodically released the underlying data behind this figure, including detailed lists of the dead.
The news agencies’s analysis looked at these lists, which were shared on social media in late October, early January, late March, and the end of April.
As recently as March, the ministry claimed over several days that 72% of the dead were women and children, even as underlying data showed the percentage was well below that.
Israeli leaders have pointed to such inconsistencies as evidence that the ministry is inflating the figures for political gain.
Experts say the reality is more complicated and that the ministry has been overwhelmed by war, making it difficult to track casualties.
The true toll in Gaza could have serious repercussions.
Israel faces heavy international criticism over unprecedented levels of civilian casualties in Gaza and questions about whether it has done enough to prevent them in an eight-month-old war that shows no sign of ending. An airstrike in Rafah last month killed dozens of Palestinians, and one on a school-turned-shelter in central Gaza on Thursday killed at least 33 people, including 12 women and children, health officials said.
Two international courts in the Hague are examining accusations that Israel has committed war crimes and genocide against Palestinians – allegations it adamantly denies.
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