- Ukraine may have surpassed Russia in numbers of active tanks, according to new data.
- But Russia has a near indefinite supply of older tanks to replace its losses, military experts said.
- Ukraine’s tanks, however, give the country a qualitative edge.
Ukraine is close to equalizing its tank numbers with Russia, new data suggests. But even as the country’s active tank count climbs, Russia is unlikely to run out of armored vehicles any time soon.
More than 18 months into the war, Ukraine is on track to surpass Russia in the size of its battlefield tank fleet, Bloomberg reported this week, citing a compilation of several data sources and defense statements.
The Military Balance 2023, an annual report from the International Institute for Strategic Studies think tank, said Russia began the war in February 2022 with 3,417 available tanks, compared to Ukraine’s 987. Heavy Russian losses coupled with a steady stream of donations from Ukraine’s Western allies, however, have helped even the score in intervening months.
Oryx, an open-source intelligence defense outlet that records only confirmable losses, said Russia has lost at least 2,091 tanks thus far while Ukraine has lost 558. The latter has also managed to capture 546 tanks and has already received 471 new Western vehicles, with hundreds more still coming, the outlet said.
The most recent estimates from Bloomberg put Ukraine’s tank count at 1,500 active tanks compared to approximately 1,400 for Russia.
But those numbers, while encouraging for Ukraine and its supporters, don’t account for the tanks that Russia has undoubtedly pulled from storage to supplant its losses, two military experts told Insider.
And Russia’s supply of older tanks is likely plentiful, they said.
“The Russians, like the Soviets, never threw anything away,” said Mark Cancian, a retired US Marine Corps colonel and a senior advisor with the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ security program, in a March interview with Insider.
In follow-up comments this week, Cancian said because of this, he believes Russia probably still has a numerical advantage over Ukraine if non-active tanks are accounted for.
Throughout the war, Russia has primarily relied on four different models of tanks: T-64s, T-72s, T-80s, and T-90s, with T-72s making up the bulk of their fleet thanks to years of Soviet-era production and more modern updates to the vehicles, as Insider previously reported.
But as its losses mount, the country has been forced to turn to its older tanks in storage, including T-62s, T-55s, and T-54s, some of which date as far back as the 1940s.
It’s unclear how many tanks Russia has already pulled from storage, as well as how many vehicles it has in storage to keep drawing upon.
But it’s not just the number of tanks that are diverging between Ukraine and Russia, said Mick Ryan, a retired Major General in the Australian Army and a military strategist — it’s the quality, too.
“Certainly the influx of Western armored vehicles gives them a qualitative advantage,” Ryan told Insider of Ukraine.
While Russia is returning to its past to restock depleted supply, Ukraine is sporting high-quality NATO tanks as replacements for its lost vehicles.
“Ukraine’s tank fleet probably has as much combat power as the Russians,” Cancian said.
Battlefield data suggests most of the tanks in play aren’t currently being utilized in tank-on-tank engagement, Ryan said, instead being used to support infantry attacks, engage other vehicles, or provide indirect fire support.
Still, despite their antiquated designs and subpar systems, even an older Russian tank would be an unwelcome sight to a dismounted Ukrainian infantryman, Ryan said.
Ukraine’s current counter-offensive continues to slog on as the country attempts to penetrate Russian defenses to little avail thus far. But if they do manage to break the Russian fortifications, Ukraine’s newfound tank edge could come in handy, Cancian said.
“Once in the open, Ukraine can use these tanks and their superior firepower to gain a lot of territory,” he told Insider.
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