Ukraine’s big offensive has hit a few roadblocks, but military experts say don’t believe Russia’s hype about it being a total failure

• Russia is trying to convince the world that Ukraine’s counter offensive is failing.
• But military experts told Insider it’s much too early to draw any conclusions about the fight.
• “It’s just getting underway,” one former general said. “Most of Ukraine’s army isn’t even in the fight yet.”

Ukraine’s much-anticipated counter-offensive is off to an admittedly slow start, but Russia’s claim that its enemy has already fumbled the attack is especially erroneous in light of its own recent bout of mutinous infighting, military strategists said.

In the weeks leading up to Ukraine’s big push, much was made about the hefty stakes of the country’s coming counter-offensive, which officially launched three weeks ago. Experts at the time told Insider that a Ukrainian victory was paramount to ongoing international aid and could even redirect the trajectory of the 16-month war.

But since Ukraine began its attack earlier this month, the country’s efforts to break through Russia’s dug-in trenches have been hobbled by dangerous minefields along the miles-long front and air attacks from above, culminating in a brutal slog of an offensive thus far.

“The Russians made good use of the months they had to prepare their defenses, especially the minefields,” Retired Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a former commander of US Army Europe, told Insider. “It’s going to be tough getting through that.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged last week that the offensive was going “slower than expected.” But military strategists told Insider that it’s “way too early” for people to be drawing conclusions about the success of Ukraine’s fight.

“It’s just getting underway,” Hodges said. “Most of Ukraine’s army is not even in the fight yet.”

Ukraine is still in the initial phase of ground operations, which is focused on collecting information and confirming intelligence that offers insight into the enemy’s objectives, Mick Ryan, a retired Major General in the Australian Army and a military strategist, told Insider.

“The offensive has started, but not the main attack,” Ryan said.

The Ukrainians have taken a broad front approach, scanning the front lines to try and find a penetrable place to break through the Russians’ defenses, he told Insider.

“When they find it, they’ll do it. They only have to create one significant breakthrough to cause all kinds of problems for the Russians,” Ryan said. 

Ukraine faces challenges on the battlefield as Russia stokes misinformation

As Russia was gripped by a weekend of chaos following an armed revolt from the country’s mercenary Wagner Group, Ukraine looked to use the pandemonium to advance its offensive, gaining some ground during the uprising, according to Ukrainian officials. 

But even with the benefit of Russia’s internal dysfunction, Ukraine still has significant struggles to overcome before it can launch a momentous attack. 

The fighting thus far has been centered in the southeast where terrain is flat and open, leaving little cover for Ukraine’s advances. Russian attack helicopters have been able to avoid Ukrainian air defenses and managed to take out several of Ukraine’s Western-imported tanks.

At least 17 of the 113 Bradley tanks that the US gave Ukraine earlier this year have been damaged or destroyed since fighting began, a senior US military official told The New York Times. Meanwhile, Ukraine has gained only about four miles of territory in its biggest push yet.

But nonstop talk of Ukraine’s failures is exactly what Russia is working to stoke among its enemy’s international partners. 

Since the counter-offensive began, Russia has cultivated a “strategic influence campaign” that aims to project a narrative of abject Ukrainian failure on the battlefield, Ryan said, regardless of the battlefield realities.

“They want Ukraine’s principal partners, particularly the US and Europe, to see this as unsuccessful, to force some kind of political accommodation on Zelenskyy, and to decrease the amount of military support that’s provided to Ukraine,” he said. 

Meanwhile, Russia has a simple task as Ukraine continues its push: Don’t lose.

“The Russian strategy is ‘operation not losing 2023,'” Ryan said. “The strategy from Putin is to draw this war out.”

“They just need to keep their troops in the field. They don’t need to beat the Ukrainians,” he added. “They just need to ensure Ukraine doesn’t win.”