- Germany’s center-right alliance looks set to win the country’s latest federal election.
- The CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, are set to win about 29% of the vote, exit polls say.
- The far-right Alternative for Germany party is set to take second place.
Germany’s center-right alliance looks set to win the country’s latest federal election, which comes at a critical moment for Europe’s largest economy.
Early exit polls show the Christian Democratic Union and its Bavarian sister party, the Christian Social Union, at about 29%, with the Elon Musk-backed Alternative for Germany in second at about 19.5%.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s center-left Social Democratic Party is set to come in third, the polls showed.
Single parties rarely win majorities in German elections, so Friedrich Merz’s CDU will need the support of one or more parties to secure a majority in government. His most likely options are the SDP and/or the Green Party.
The snap election followed the collapse of Germany’s governing three-party coalition in November after Scholz fired then-Finance Minister Christian Lindner, the chair of the Free Democratic Party, after Lindner rejected Scholz’s demand to suspend Germany’s debt brake, which requires the federal government to limit annual net borrowing to 0.35% of GDP.
Scholz called a vote of confidence which he then lost in December, paving the way for early national elections.
The CDU/CSU bloc had been projected to win the vote, polling at around 30% in the run-up to the election.
The CDU’s popularity seems to have been boosted by its harder line on major policy issues such as migration, pledging to enforce stricter border controls and accelerate asylum proceedings.
It also wants to retain Germany’s debt brake, cut corporate tax rates to a maximum of 25%, and “eliminate unnecessary red tape.”
The CDU has also pledged continued support to Ukraine.
The vote comes at a pivotal time for Berlin, which faces an increasingly assertive Trump administration that has threatened tariffs on the EU and looked to sideline Europe on negotiations with Russia over the Ukraine war.
Germany is a leading NATO member and a key provider of military aid to Ukraine — and it will play an important role in carving out Europe’s future relations with the Trump administration.
After several historic regional election results and strong support from Musk, the AfD came into the elections in a jubilant mood.
Musk — who appeared virtually at a party campaign event alongside AfD leader Alice Weidel in January — has praised the group’s staunchly anti-immigration stance.
“Only the AfD can save Germany,” Musk posted on X in December.
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