TINSUKIA: Under blazing skies at a tea plantation in India’s northeastern state of Assam, picker Kamini Kurmi wears an umbrella fastened over her head to
keep her hands free to pluck delicate leaves from the bushes.
“When it’s really hot, my head spins and my heart starts beating very fast,” said Kurmi, one of the scores of women employed for their dextrous fingers, instead of machines that harvest most conventional crops within a matter of days.
Weather extremes are shrivelling harvests on India’s tea plantations, endangering the future of an industry famed for beverages as refreshing as Assam and Darjeeling, while reshaping a global trade estimated at more than $10 billion a year.
“Shifts in temperature and rainfall patterns are no longer occasional anomalies; they are the new normal,” said Rupanjali Deb Baruah, a scientist at the Tea Research Association.
As the changing patterns scythe down yields and stall output, rising Indian domestic consumption is expected to shrink exports from the world’s second largest tea producer.
While output stagnates in other key producers such as Kenya and Sri Lanka, shrinking Indian exports, which made up 12% of global trade last year, could boost prices.
Tea prices at Indian auctions have grown just 4.8% a year for three decades, far behind the 10% achieved by staples wheat and rice.
Last year’s output drop of 7.8%, to nearly 1.3 billion kg (2.8 billion lb), mostly fuelled by a sharp fall in Assam, boosted prices by nearly a fifth, taking the average to 201.28 rupees a kg.
India’s June tea output drops 9% y/y on lower rainfall
“It wasn’t like this before,” said Manju Kurmi, who has worked in tea gardens for 40 years, during which she used to pick about 110 kg (243 lb) of leaves a day.
“But now that it’s grown hotter, I can only manage around 60 kilograms (132 lb).”
The falling yields are piling pressure on an industry already grappling with shrinking margins and heavy debt, making harder companies’ task of reinvesting in plantations, replacing ageing bushes, and developing climate-resilient varieties.
The most coveted part of Assam’s tea harvest is the second flush, prized for its rich aroma and flavour, which typically draws a premium over the first flush, but it is particularly vulnerable to heatwaves.
The mildly warm, humid conditions critical for the state’s tea-growing districts are increasingly being disrupted by lengthy dry spells and sudden, intense rains.
Heat strains the cup
Such weather not only helps pests breed but forces estate owners to turn to the little-used practice of irrigating plantations, said Mritunjay Jalan, the owner of an 82-year-old tea estate in Assam’s Tinsukia district.
Rainfall there has dropped by more than 250 mm (10 inches) between 1921 and 2024, while minimum temperatures have risen by 1.2 degrees Celsius (34.2 degrees Fahrenheit), the Tea Research Association says.
The monsoon, Assam’s key source of rain as summer and winter showers have nearly disappeared, brought rains this season that were 38% below average.
That has helped shorten the peak output season to just a few months, narrowing the harvesting window, said senior tea planter Prabhat Bezboruah.
“Tea prices have turned volatile,” Bezboruah said. “While they are correcting this year, lower production next year is expected to drive them higher.”
Patchy rains bring more frequent pest infestations, leaving tea leaves discoloured, blotched brown, and sometimes riddled with tiny holes.
Beyond the lush gardens, the punishing heat forces workers to step away from the tea drying troughs and cool off under wall-mounted industrial fans.
“We have to take breaks as often as every 30 minutes,” said
Putli Lohar, who has worked for a dozen years in tea factories.
In such factories, once the leaves have dried, they are crushed and sifted in large barrel-shaped machines before workers haul them away in sacks or hook them to pulleys to be carried off for further processing.
Then women wearing disposable caps, masks, and aprons inspect the tea before final quality checks and packaging.
After last year’s drought hit output, tea growers pruned trees early, dug compost pits, and stepped up use of pesticide.
These measures, in turn, add to costs, already rising at 8% to 9% a year, pushed up by higher wages and prices of fertiliser, said Hemant Bangur, chairman of leading industry body the Indian Tea Association.
Planters say government incentives are insufficient to spur replanting, crucial in Assam, where many colonial-era tea bushes yield less and lose resilience to weather as they age out of a usual productive span of 40 to 50 years.
India’s tea industry has flourished for nearly 200 years, but its share of global trade could fall below the 2024 figure of 12%, as the increasing prosperity of a growing population boosts demand at home.
Domestic consumption jumped 23% over the past decade to 1.2 billion kg (2.7 billion lb), far outpacing production growth of 6.3%, the Indian Tea Association says.
While exports of quality tea have shrunk in recent years, India’s imports have grown, nearly doubling in 2024 on the year to a record 45.3 million kg (99.8 million lb).
That adds expense for overseas buyers, said executives of India’s leading merchants, at a time when global competitors, such as Kenya, face similar problems.
“With India also falling short, global supplies could tighten and finally give world prices a boost,” said an official of a leading exporter in the eastern city of Kolkata, speaking on condition of anonymity.
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