- Refinitiv and Bloomberg say Goldman Sachs lost the top M&A ranking for the first half for the first time in 5 years.
- Another data firm, Dealogic, still has Goldman on top.
- When mega deals return, Goldman is poised to gain market share.
It is a difference of less than $8 billion, or the size of one large deal, but it has cost Goldman Sachs a crown.
For the first time in five years, the storied Wall Street firm is not the top advisor on global mergers and acquisitions at the midyear mark, according to data from Refinitiv Deals Intelligence.
JPMorgan is No. 1, with $296 billion worth of deals worldwide, or a 23.1% share of the market, compared with roughly $288 billion worth of deals for Goldman, or a 22.5% market share, according to Refinitiv. Bloomberg’s data also show JPMorgan top, followed by Goldman.
But another data provider, Dealogic, has Goldman in the lead for the first half, advising on $314.4 billion worth of deals, compared with JPMorgan’s $305.2 billion.
Goldman has long taken pride in its position as the leading M&A advisor, typically touting its league table crown high in its quarterly earnings announcements, as it did in the first quarter. That quarter the data firms again diverged on their rankings, with Dealogic showing Goldman No. 1 and Refinitiv putting it behind JPMorgan.
A Goldman spokeswoman declined to comment.
The environment for dealmaking is unquestionably difficult, with higher interest rates making debt more expensive, the outlook for the economy still uncertain, and the Biden administration getting tougher on antitrust.
In the first half of 2023, merger activity worldwide tumbled 38% from a year ago, the sharpest decline since the first half of the pandemic year of 2020, according to the Refinitiv data. For the mega deals, or those valued at more than $10 billion, business has been even slower, with a 52% decline.
But if that’s the bottom of the deal cycle, then Goldman stands to benefit when mega mergers come roaring back.
Goldman’s cohead of mergers and acquisitions, Stephan Feldgoise, indicated in April that when the mega deals start to come down the pipe, Goldman will be involved, as the firm has been in the past, Insider reported. And that will mean that Goldman can reap richer fees than its rivals, as advising banks are typically paid a percentage of the size of the deal.
In a letter sent to Goldman alumni on April 18, Feldgoise saw reasons for optimism, writing:
“The most active sectors at the peak, technology and private equity, remain relatively dormant with ‘old-industry’ sectors including natural resources and industrials rising to the top. This is a cycle very reminiscent of the post 2000 internet bubble implosion where asset heavy, cash flow businesses rose to M&A prominence.”
And he noted that “anecdotally, conversations regarding potential transactions with clients have also seen marked increases.”
Here is the rest of Refinitiv’s top 10 of global M&A advisors for the first half of the year, in what is known as the league table:
- Bank of America
- Morgan Stanley
- Centerview Partners
- Citi
- UBS
- BMO Capital Markets
- Guggenheim Securities
- Lazard
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