The government is expected to reduce petroleum product prices from December 1, 2025, as weaker global oil markets and declining refined product prices create ample space for a price reduction.
Latest estimates, provided by Arif Habib Limited (AHL) on Friday, suggest that both major fuels — petrol and high-speed diesel (HSD) — are set for a cut, offering potential relief to motorists and businesses at the start of the month.
According to the data, during the November 17–27 review period, international crude benchmarks continued to ease. Brent averaged $63.43 per barrel, reflecting a drop of 2.5% from the previous cycle, while WTI slipped 1.4% to $59.04.
Arab Light also dropped 2.2% to $65.61 per barrel.
Similarly, petrol shed 2.7% to $74.32 per barrel, and diesel declined 3.8% to $88.76 per barrel.
Based on the pricing formula, diesel prices for the December 1–15 period are projected to decline by Rs6.50 per litre, bringing the new rate near Rs271.94 compared to Rs278.44 in the previous fortnight. Petrol is expected to see a notable reduction of Rs4.15 per litre, with the new price estimated at Rs261.30 versus Rs265.45 earlier.
“As per our estimates, price of HSD is expected to decrease by Rs6.50/ltr, while MS price is expected to decline by Rs4.15/ltr, effective 1st Dec’25,” said AHL.
The brokerage house attributed the decline in petroleum prices to weaker international oil markets, with Arab Light decreasing by 2.2% relative to the previous fortnight”.
“Moreover, product spreads for HSD and MS contracted by 8% and 6%, respectively,” it added.
The Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) is scheduled to submit its summary to the Ministry of Finance by November 30. While the final announcement is still three days away, the government is widely expected to approve the decrease.
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