India 10-year yield logs biggest weekly surge since RBI’s surprise hike in May 2022

MUMBAI: Indian government bonds plunged on Friday, capping a week of losses, as New Delhi’s fuel excise duty cut clouded the fiscal outlook, intensified oil-driven anxiety, and drove the 10-year yield to its biggest weekly jump in nearly four years.

The benchmark 6.48% 2035 bond yield ended at 6.9419%, the highest level for a benchmark 10-year note since July 25, 2024, after closing at 6.8750% in the previous session. Bond yields move inversely to prices.

For the week, the yield rose 20 basis points, the biggest such move since week ended May 6, 2022, when the central bank started its aggressive rate hiking cycle with a surprise rate increase in between scheduled policy meetings.

New Delhi reduced the special excise duty on petrol and diesel on Thursday as fuel prices stay volatile, with supplies choked by the Middle East war.

A government official said the move would cost the government 70 billion rupees ($739.33 million) per fortnight, while analysts estimate it will entail a fiscal hit of between 1.5 trillion rupees to 1.75 trillion rupees for fiscal year 2027.

The move comes as the Brent crude oil price hovers around $110 per barrel, after briefly easing to below $100 earlier in the week.

Elevated oil prices are detrimental for India, the world’s third-largest crude importer, threatening to fan inflation and widen India’s current account deficit.

“If oil continues to trade higher, the crude basket assumed by RBI in October policy at $70 per barrel will undergo a significant revision. The higher crude oil will eventually seep into broader inflation baskets,” said Alok Sharma, head of treasury at ICBC, Mumbai.

Bonds are also under strain as states sold debt worth nearly 1 trillion rupees during the week, amid waning investor demand.

Rates

India’s overnight index swap (OIS) rates saw heavy reversal of recently entered received positions, with the key swap rates rising to multi-year highs.

The one-year OIS rate ended at 6.04%, while the two-year OIS rate closed at 6.2750%. The liquid five-year swap rate settled at 6.6350%.

The one-year swap rate is up 56 bps this month, while the two-year and five-year OIS rates have surged 69 and 65 bps respectively.