MUMBAI: Indian government bonds traded in a narrow range in early deals on Tuesday, as traders cautiously awaited domestic and U.S. inflation data for further clues on the Reserve Bank of India’s rate-easing cycle.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year bond was at 6.4325% as of 10:00 a.m. IST, compared with Monday’s close of 6.4398%, the highest since April 11.
“Any upside surprise in domestic inflation data against estimates could trigger some selling, but focus is largely on the U.S. inflation data,” a trader at a private bank said.
India’s inflation print is due at 4:00 p.m. IST, with analysts expecting domestic prices to have risen at their slowest pace in eight years, at 1.76% in July.
Meanwhile, U.S. inflation data is set to be released after market hours.
Economists polled by Reuters projected U.S. core CPI to have risen by 0.3% in July, pushing the annual rate to 3%, above the Fed’s 2% target.
Traders are factoring in an 85% chance of a Fed rate cut next month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Meanwhile, higher U.S. Treasury yields are dampening the mood in the domestic market, traders said.
The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was up 1 basis point at 4.2849% in Asian hours.
Separately, Indian states will raise 84.5 billion rupees via bonds later in the day. While the lower-than-expected supply may support sentiment, traders said the inflation print will drive any significant moves.
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