MUMBAI: The Indian rupee is expected to hold a narrow range on Friday on a recovery in the dollar index post the US inflation data-fuelled selloff, while portfolio and corporate flows will be in focus.
Non-deliverable forwards indicate rupee will open mostly unchanged from 83.50 to the US dollar in the previous session.
The rupee did not benefit from the broad selloff in the dollar on Thursday after the softer-than-expected US inflation data.
“What can you say when there is not the slightest bit happening on a big news day. Expect yet one more quiet day, with a 3-4 paisa range off the 83.50 level,” an FX trader at a bank said.
“The way things have been, I am inclined to think that we will have to wait till the election exit polls and results to have any form of tradable move.”
India’s national election results are due on June 4 and exit polls will be out post the final phase of elections that will be held on June 1.
Till then, you will have narrow intraday moves based on how flows pan out, a senior treasury official at a bank said.
“Particularly what the large custodial banks are up to and whether importers will pick up their hedging activity.”
The dollar index and US yields were higher, in a reversal from the moves after the US inflation data came in. Asian currencies were down following Thursday’s rally.
Indian rupee to open higher after data boosts odds of Fed rate cuts
The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits dropped last week, which indicated underlying strength in the US labour market and that interest rates could remain higher for longer.
Alluding to the move higher in US yields, ING Bank said Federal Reserve speakers “again suggested that rates would need to remain higher for longer” Comments made by policymakers on Thursday indicated that they haven’t openly shifted views yet about the timing of rate cuts investors are convinced will start this year.
American Dollar Exchange Rate