Indian equities are poised for a sharply weaker open on Monday, mirroring a broad risk-off move across Asia as escalating US-Iran tensions kept oil prices elevated and deepened concerns over growth and earnings outlook.
GIFT Nifty futures were trading at 22,790 around 8:17 a.m. IST, indicating to 1.4% decline for the Nifty 50 from Friday’s close of 23,114.50.
The selloff reflects a rapid increase in risk aversion.
Asian markets fell 2.7% as tensions in the Middle East intensified, undermining hopes of a near-term de-escalation in the US-Israeli conflict with Iran, now in its fourth week.
Iran warned on Sunday that it could target the energy and water systems of Gulf neighbours if US President Donald Trump acted on his threat to strike Iran’s electricity grid in 48 hours, unless Tehran fully reopened the Strait of Hormuz, amplifying fears of a broader regional disruption.
Brent crude hovering near $112 a barrel poses a particular challenge for India, one of the world’s largest oil importers.
Persistently high oil prices could fuel inflation, widen external imbalances, weaken the rupee, and extend foreign capital outflows.
The impact is already evident.
Foreign portfolio investors have sold $9.57 billion worth of Indian equities so far in March, putting the month on track for the heaviest outflows since October 2024.
The rupee slid past 93-per-dollar level on Friday, in its steepest weekly fall in more than three years, while government bonds are also expected to remain under strain.
The Nifty 50 and Sensex have declined 8.2% and 8.3%, respectively, this month.
HDFC Bank, India’s largest private lender and the heaviest-weighted stock on the benchmarks, will remain in focus after sliding 7.43% during two sessions following the resignation of part-time chairman Atanu Chakraborty over differences related to “values and ethics.”
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