India’s benchmark equity indexes fell 10% from their all-time highs this week, confirming a technical correction, a widely watched threshold that signals a meaningful market pullback, on persistent selling due to the Iran war and soaring oil prices.
The conflict, which has spread across large parts of the Middle East, is expected to weigh on India’s macroeconomic outlook with foreign investors pulling out from higher-risk emerging markets.
The Nifty 50 on Thursday closed 10.4% below its record high of 26,373.20 hit earlier this year. The BSE Sensex settled 10.8% below its lifetime peak of 86,159.02 a day earlier.
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They closed the week 12.2% and 13.5% below their record high levels.
“There is absolute panic selling in markets,” said Avinash Gorakshakar, founder and head of research at Avinash Mentor Research, as spiking crude prices fan worries over energy security, earnings stress, currency stability and softer consumption.
TECHNICAL INDICATORS
“Moving averages and momentum-based indicators continue to suggest a bearish undertone, indicating that the near-term trend remains under pressure,” said Sudeep Shah, head of technical and derivatives research at SBI Securities.
Both Nifty and Sensex are trading below their key 50-day, 100-day and 200-day moving averages, implying that the weakness is spreading across medium- and long-term trend signals as well.
When an index breaks all these levels, it implies that momentum has deteriorated sharply and buying support has thinned out.
These moving averages are widely tracked by institutions, traders and foreign investors, with the breaches potentially triggering fresh risk controls and selling pressure.
The benchmark indexes’ relative strength index, or RSI, also fell below 30 this week, signalling they have moved into oversold territory.
Oversold conditions suggest the selling may have been excessive, though it can also indicate that bearish momentum remains intense.
FOREIGN INVESTORS RESUME SELLING
Foreign portfolio investors have sold $5.73 billion worth of Indian equities since the Iran war began, with March outflows so far already the highest in 14 months.
“Until there is some clarity, (foreign selling) will continue to roil markets and foreign investors are unlikely to return to India in a meaningful way,” said Gorakshakar.
Even as foreign investors dumped Indian stocks, domestic investors remained buyers, though there has been a moderation in inflows and slowdown in new SIP registrations.
“This is natural in the context of a sideways or a subdued market as retail investors tend to wait for clearer market direction,” said Santosh Joseph, chief executive at Germinate Investor Services.
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