Middle East war is new ‘red flag’ for roiled tech market

BARCELONA: The war between the US, Israel and Iran will raise “red flags” for tech firms that have invested in Middle East infrastructure, especially data centres needed to power AI, analysts have warned.

The conflict marked the opening of the Mobile World Congress (MWC) telecoms trade fair on Monday morning in Barcelona, with would-be attendees blocked from travel and experts anticipating the fallout.

Until this weekend, the Middle East “was investing heavily and making sure they drove the interest from key players” in siting tech infrastructure there, said Francisco Jeronimo, a specialist covering the Middle Eastern and European markets for data firm IDC.

Now the war “will raise red flags for many vendors, because (the situation) becomes very unstable”, he added.

READ MORE: Middle East fighting overshadows world telecom show

In case of extended fighting, big players may “reconsider whether they will continue to invest”, Jeronimo said.

Even now, the conflict is set to heavily impact distribution of smartphones and other gadgets across much of the world.

Thanks to tax-free zones, Dubai “has been a very important hub for the region, but also for Western Europe” in terms of logistics, Jeronimo pointed out.

“Any time there’s a disruption to global trade, the value chain is necessarily affected,” said Anne Hoecker, an analyst for Bain & Company.

The potential knock-on effects are expected to pile on top of a tech market already upset by soaring prices for memory (RAM) chips, pumped up by giant AI developers’ investments in computing power.

“The memory shortage is something that’s clearly affecting supply chains right now, and will have an impact on phones and laptop computers,” Hoecker said.

Prices for the vital memory chips surged 40% in the final quarter of 2025 and are expected to climb further this year.

Some major smartphone manufacturers like Samsung are already passing through the shock to end consumers.

Jeronimo predicted the impact would lead to “the biggest drop ever in smartphone sales in 2026”.