NEW YORK: Oil prices were little changed on Tuesday as the market waited for direction from news on Iran and Russia and data on the U.S. economy and U.S. oil inventories.
Brent futures rose 27 cents, or 0.4%, to $69.31 a barrel at 9:58 a.m. EST (1458 GMT), while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 12 cents, or 0.2%, to $64.48.
“The market is still focused on the tensions between Iran and the U.S.,” said Tamas Varga, oil analyst at brokerage PVM. “But unless there are concrete signs of supply disruptions, prices will likely start going lower.”
Nuclear talks with the U.S. allowed Tehran to gauge Washington’s seriousness and showed enough consensus to continue on the diplomatic track, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson said on Tuesday.
U.S. and Iranian diplomats held talks through Omani mediators in Oman last week in an effort to revive diplomacy, after U.S. President Donald Trump positioned a naval flotilla in the region, raising fears of new military action. On Monday, oil prices rose more than 1% when the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Maritime Administration advised U.S.-flagged commercial vessels to stay as far from Iran’s territorial waters as possible and to decline verbally if Iranian forces seek permission to board.
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About a fifth of the oil consumed globally passes through the Strait of Hormuz between Oman and Iran, making any escalation in the area a major risk to global oil supplies.
Iran and fellow Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq export most of their crude via the strait, mainly to Asia.
“While talks in Oman produced a cautiously positive tone, a modest risk premium has been kept intact by lingering uncertainty over potential escalation, sanctions tightening or supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz,” said IG analyst Tony Sycamore.
Iran was the third-biggest crude producer in OPEC behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq in 2025, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data.
Russia and Ukraine
European Union (EU) foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said on Tuesday she would propose a list of concessions that Europe should demand from Russia as part of a settlement to end the war in Ukraine.
The EU has proposed to extend its sanctions against Russia to include ports in Georgia and Indonesia that handle Russian oil, the first time the bloc would target ports in third countries, according to a proposal document seen by Reuters.
The move is part of efforts to squeeze Russian revenue over the war in Ukraine.
Indian Oil Corp, meanwhile, bought six million barrels of crude from West Africa and the Middle East, traders said, as India steered clear of Russian oil in New Delhi’s push for a trade deal with Washington.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, meanwhile, said that there was no reason to be enthusiastic about U.S. President Trump’s pressure on Europe and Ukraine as there was still a long way to go in talks on peace in Ukraine, RIA reported on Tuesday.
Russia was the world’s third-biggest crude producer behind the U.S. and Saudi Arabia in 2025, according to EIA data.
US economy and oil inventories
U.S. retail sales were unexpectedly unchanged in December, putting consumer spending and the overall economy on a slower growth path in the new year.
Analysts said investors will scrutinize a slate of U.S. economic data releases scheduled for this week, including January’s nonfarm payrolls report on Wednesday and inflation data on Friday, for clues to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
Central banks, like the Fed, raise and lower interest rates to keep inflation in check. U.S. President Trump has pressured the Fed to lower interest rates, which is politically popular because it reduces consumers’ costs and can boost economic growth and energy demand, but could also result in an unwanted rise in inflation.
In the energy market, traders are waiting for weekly U.S. oil inventory data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) trade group on Tuesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday.
Analysts forecast U.S. crude stockpiles declined by around 3.5 million barrels last week.
If correct, that would be the first time energy firms pulled oil from storage for three weeks in a row since June 2025. That compares with an increase of 4.1 million barrels during the same week last year and an average increase of 1.4 million barrels over the past five years (2021-2025).
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