Oil rises in choppy trade as investors focus on supply signals

NEW YORK: Oil prices rose slightly on Tuesday in choppy trading, as investors focused on expectations the market is likely to become oversupplied and sought clarity on the trade dispute between the U.S. and China, the world’s two biggest oil consumers.

Brent crude futures rose 23 cents, or 0.4%, to $61.24 a barrel at 11:38 a.m. ET (1538 GMT). The U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude contract for November delivery, set to expire on Tuesday, was up 22 cents, or also 0.4%, to $57.74.

Both contracts had hit their lowest since early May on Monday, as record U.S. oil production and the decision by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies to press ahead with planned supply hikes raised expectations of oversupply.

The U.S.-China trade dispute has also increased anticipation that a slowdown of global economic growth will curb demand for oil. Both sides have, however, made some efforts to downplay the disagreement.

U.S. President Donald Trump, who is set to meet China’s Xi Jinping in South Korea next week, said on Monday he expects to reach a fair trade deal with his counterpart.

EXPERTS SPLIT ON FUTURE DIRECTION

The structure of both WTI and Brent futures curves has started to shift to a contango, where prices for immediate supply are lower than for later delivery. That typically indicates that near-term supply is abundant and demand is declining.

Market participants are debating how deep that contango is likely to be.

The International Energy Agency earlier this month forecast that a surplus next year would lead to a strongly upward-sloped futures curve, called super contango. However, that has not emerged so far, UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said in a note.

“While supply concerns have increased in recent weeks again, we believe the oil market is oversupplied but not in a glut,” Staunovo noted.

“We expect oil prices to stabilize around current levels,” he said, adding that prices could come under pressure if trade tensions escalate.

A preliminary Reuters poll released on Monday showed that U.S. crude oil stockpiles likely rose last week.

“The reality of stock builds appears to be finally here and prices should head lower to put a deeper contango in the market,” said Scott Shelton, energy specialist at TP ICAP Group.