BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, has forecasted that Pakistan is “highly likely” to witness a change of government before the next parliamentary election scheduled for 2029.
“Pakistan’s next parliamentary election is scheduled for 2029. However, it is highly likely that the country will see a change of government before this date,” stated BMI in its Pakistan Country Risk Report for the fourth quarter of calendar year 2024.
“No Pakistani prime minister has ever completed a full five-year term in office,” it noted.
The report said political risk in Pakistan will remain highly elevated in 2024 and 2025.
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“While allies of opposition leader Imran Khan won a plurality of seats in the February 2024 election, Pakistan’s establishment parties managed to form another coalition government.
“This administration, lacking popular support, faces the daunting challenge of managing an economy that is beginning to recover following the 2022/23 crisis and addressing fragile security concerns.
“Further protests by Khan’s supporters – many of whom believe that their party has been targeted by Pakistan’s establishment – are likely,” read the report.
BMI gave Pakistan a score 60.6 out of 100 on its Political Risk Index.
Pakistan received a score of 42.8 on the Governance sub-component of BMI Political Risk Index.
The report noted that the Pakistani government faces the daunting challenge of managing disputes between the more liberal urban centers and the more religious rural areas, between Punjab and the smaller provinces, and between landowners and the large rural populace.
BMI gave a score of 76.6 out of 100 to Pakistan on the Society sub-component of its Political Risk Index.
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